2020 could be ‘year of the young voter’ — but it’s not happening in SLO County yet
As election season winds up , numerous media outlets and political pundits have taken to saying 2020 could be the “year of the young voter,” pointing to millennial and Gen Z voter registration and jumps in young turnout during midterm elections as indicators of an impending wave of younger voters.
In San Luis Obispo County, that wave is more of a trickle so far.
Despite predictions claiming younger voters would turn out in droves to cast their votes in a controversial presidential election, and some positive early voting data in other areas of the country, the youngest age group of San Luis Obispo County voters has yet to make a strong showing, according to ballot data from Political Data, Inc.
San Luis Obispo County residents received their vote-by-mail ballots the first week of October.
Two weeks later, county Clerk-Recorder Tommy Gong said his office had already received an unprecedented number of returned ballots, indicating a massive wave of early voting. That trend continued through the next weeks.
As of Wednesday, Gong said his office has received 94,000 ballots, keeping it on track to receive more than 100,000 by the weekend.
But a dive into data from Political Data Inc. shows the majority of those ballots were from voters age 65 and older.
As of Tuesday, roughly 45% of the more than 85,500 ballots returned to the San Luis Obispo County Clerk Recorder’s office were from voters age 65 and older. (The PDI data often lags behind a few days, lending to smaller numbers than the latest count described by Gong.)
With 38,281 ballots turned in as of Tuesday, 68% of the registered voting population in the oldest age bracket have already voted, according to PDI data.
Voters in the next oldest age bracket — ages 50 to 64 — are also showing a steady turnout. According to the data, about 47% of the county’s 47,763 registered voters in that age group have returned their ballot. This comprises 27% of the votes received.
Meanwhile younger voters lag far behind.
About 34% of voters between 35 and 49 have turned in their ballots and only 28% of voters between the ages of 18 and 34 have voted so far, according to the data.
This means ballots from each of those age groups represent only about 14% of the vote, or a collective 28% of the ballots received.
Though both of those age groups have fewer registered voters than their older compatriots, they’re still showing lower voter turnout than might proportionally be expected.
If all registered voters in San Luis Obispo County turned in their ballots, voters over the age of 65 would comprise about 31% of the vote, while voters between 50 and 64 would be 26%, those between 35 and 49 would be 20% and those between 18 to 34 would be 23%.
Why are younger SLO County residents not voting early?
A wave of young voters is something frequently heralded during an election, but rarely realized.
In the 2016 presidential election, San Luis Obispo County voters between the ages of 18 and 34 cast 15,786 ballots, according to PDI — just 12.8% of the vote.
Information on the local youth turnout rate during that election was not available.
Gong said lower turnout among younger voters is typical, though he noted that there are some factors that might be contributing to even lower numbers this year.
“Here locally, we’ve had a significant drop at Cal Poly,” Gong wrote in an email to The Tribune. “During the 2016 presidential, we had 2,139 registered voters. This election, we are at 842.”
Gong said Cal Poly’s student government did not host its large voter registration drives as it has in previous election cycles, which could lead to lower than usual registration numbers at the university.
Additionally, Gong said, students are turning in vote-by-mail ballots from their home counties, and not technically voting in San Luis Obispo County.
So is all hope of a local “year of the young voter” lost?
Gong said it’s uncertain.
“Will they come out on Election Day, (after) possibly procrastinating?” Gong said. “Maybe.”
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