Will SLO County get more rain? Here’s what the forecast says

After the significant rains from late December into early January — which brought the Central Coast well above normal precipitation for this time of year — the U.S. Drought Monitor now shows that all of California is drought free.

Locally, Central Coast reservoirs and lakes are in decent shape for this time of year.

Santa Margarita Lake is filled to 102% capacity, while Lopez Lake stands at 83%.

San Antonio Lake is at 54%, and Lake Nacimiento has risen to about half full, up from 35% on December 10, 2025.

Whale Rock Reservoir is at 87% capacity, while Twitchell Reservoir reports 10%.

Along the 92-mile-long Santa Ynez River, Cachuma, Gibraltar and Jameson reservoirs are all at 100% capacity and are currently spilling.

A significant shift in the weather pattern has developed, with the Eastern Pacific High (around 1,030 millibars) firmly anchored a few hundred miles west of San Francisco, while transient areas of high pressure move across the Great Basin.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a strong 584-decimeter ridge will remain positioned over the Central Coast.

This setup will force the storm track well to the north into British Columbia and Washington state, keeping the Central Coast dry through at least next week, and possibly through the end of January.

Gusty Santa Lucia (northeasterly) winds will develop during the overnight and morning, easing during the afternoon. This pattern will persist through Friday, delivering “Chamber of Commerce” weather with cool, crisp mornings and mild afternoons.

Overnight low temperatures will drop into the lower 30s on Sunday and Monday in the inland valleys (Paso Robles), and into the low to mid-40s in the coastal valleys (San Luis Obispo) and along the beaches.

Remember, frost can form when air temperatures are well above freezing, sometimes as high as 38 to 40 degrees, because surfaces such as grass, vines, car windshields and rooftops cool faster than the surrounding air.

Temperatures will gradually warm through the week, with inland valley highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s by Tuesday, and low to mid-70s in the coastal valleys and along the beaches under mostly clear skies.

However, patches of ground fog may develop overnight in both the coastal and inland valleys.

A dry cold front is expected to move through the area next Saturday, bringing increasing cloud cover and fresh to strong (19 to 31 mph) northwesterly winds, followed by another period of gusty Santa Lucia winds during the following week.

Surf report

A 3- to 5-foot northwesterly (290-degree, deep water) swell (with a 12- to 14-second period) will remain at this level through Monday morning, increasing to 5 to 7 feet (with a 15- to 20-second period) on Monday afternoon and will remain at level through Thursday.

A 4- to 6-foot northwesterly (285-degree, deep water) swell (with a 13- to 15-second period) is forecast on Friday, becoming a 3- to 5-foot northwesterly (305-degree, deep water) sea and swell next Saturday and Sunday.

Seawater temperatures will range between 58 and 60 degrees through Friday, lowering to 57 to 59 degrees next Saturday and Sunday.

On this date in weather history (Jan. 11)

1918: A tremendous blizzard completely immobilized the Midwest, stopping mail service for two weeks. The storm passed through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Winds reached 60 mph at Toledo, Ohio, and the temperature plunged from 28 degrees to 15 degrees below zero during passage of the cold front. (David Ludlum)

1972: Downslope “Chinook” winds hit the eastern slopes of the Rockies in northern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming. Boulder, Colorado, reported wind gusts to 143 mph. (David Ludlum)

2012: A cut-off, low pressure system about 500 miles to the west of the Point San Luis Lighthouse directed extensive mid-to-high level clouds over the Central Coast. Despite the cloud cover, morning low temperatures reached below freezing in the Inland Valleys and freezing to just above freezing levels in the coastal valleys and areas immediately away from the beaches.

This week’s temperatures

LOWS AND HIGHS, PASO ROBLES

SUNDAY: 32, 64

MONDAY: 35, 65

TUESDAY: 39, 68

WEDNESDAY: 40, 71

THURSDAY: 43, 73

FRIDAY: 44, 71

SATURDAY: 43, 70

SUNDAY: 42, 72

LOWS AND HIGHS, SAN LUIS OBISPO AND COASTAL VALLEYS

SUNDAY: 44, 68

MONDAY: 45, 69

TUESDAY: 47, 73

WEDNESDAY: 49, 74

THURSDAY: 52, 75

FRIDAY: 54, 72

SATURDAY: 51, 74

SUNDAY: 50, 75

John Lindsey is a retired PG&E marine meteorologist. Email him at JohnLindseyLosOsos@gmail.com or follow him on X @PGE_John.