‘Still a lot’ of ballots to count: Here’s what it would take for Compton to pass Paulding
Election night may be over, but there’s still a long way to go before San Luis Obispo County’s primary election is certified and winners are officially declared.
SLO County Clerk-Recorder Elaina Cano said that after processing more than 39,700 ballots Tuesday night — including 2,366 cast in person and 37,411 vote-by-mail ballots — there are still plenty left to count before the election is certified.
“There are still a lot of ballots to count that we had received in the mail and the ballot drop boxes,” she told The Tribune in an email Wednesday morning.
Cano said her office is expected to count the remaining ballots on Friday. They include those received in the mail but postmarked by Election Day, those turned in to ballot drop boxes and conditional ballots that have to be checked by the Clerk-Recorder’s Office.
She said the office will begin to process those ballots at 9 a.m.; no count updates will be released until after that time, she added.
She did not provide an estimate of how many ballots there may be to process. Based on election night returns, voter turnout in the primary sat at about 22% in San Luis Obispo County. California experts predict the statewide turnout will likely be around 30%.
How remaining votes could play out
The remaining ballots could play a big role in some of the closer San Luis Obispo County races, most notably the contest for the District 2 seat on the Board of Supervisors.
There, incumbent Supervisor Bruce Gibson currently holds a 53% majority lead, but if his vote tally falls below 50%, the election will head to a runoff in November.
It could also potentially impact the showdown in South County over District 4, where Arroyo Grande City Councilman Jimmy Paulding currently holds a lead over current Supervisor Lynn Compton.
Turnout for that race sits at nearly 25% as of Wednesday, with 9,880 votes cast out of 40,057 sent out.
If that race reached the 30% turnout expected statewide, it would total about 12,000 votes, leaving about 2,100 still to be counted.
In that scenario, Compton, who is trailing by 1,594 votes, would need to win roughly 88% of the remaining ballots to pass Paulding.
If turnout jumped to 40% and a total of 16,000 votes in District 4, Compton would still need somewhere near 63% of the remaining 6,400 votes to pass Paulding.
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