Could SLO County Board of Supervisors be headed for a flip? Here’s what election results show
After the smoke cleared and ballots were counted election night, one thing stood out from San Luis Obispo County’s primary election: The county Board of Supervisors is on the precipice of a major political shakeup.
Throughout Tuesday night, Democratic candidates vying for three open spots on the board held firm leads over their conservative contenders, and at least two of those races seem headed for victories.
In District 2, incumbent Supervisor Bruce Gibson held a 53% majority over his competitors as of the final election night tally. Meanwhile, in District 3, appointed Supervisor Dawn-Ortiz Legg almost guaranteed her remaining on the board with a 33-point lead over her closest challenger.
The most notable results from Tuesday night, however, were for the District 4 showdown between incumbent Supervisor Lynn Compton and her challenger, Arroyo Grande City Councilmember Jimmy Paulding.
As of 1 a.m. Wednesday, Paulding led in the district race with 58.3% of the vote, an advantage of more than 16 points.
If all of three races continue in the same direction as the remaining ballots are counted, Paulding could be the county’s newest supervisor — and the board majority would flip from conservative to liberal.
All the results are subject to change as the remaining ballots are processed by the San Luis Obispo County Clerk-Recorder’s Office.
This includes last-minute vote-by-mail ballots that were dropped off in ballot boxes on Election Day, any received in the mail from Tuesday on and provisional or conditional ballots that have to be checked by the Clerk-Recorder’s Office.
As of Wednesday morning, County Clerk-Recorder Elaina Cano, who secured a 50-point victory herself in Tuesday’s primary, said there were “still a lot of ballots to count that we had received in the mail and the ballot drop boxes.”
Cano said the office will not count or release any further ballot updates until Friday. She did not provide an estimate of how many ballots remain to be counted.
Cal Poly political science professor Michael Latner cautioned against the leading candidates breaking out the champagne just yet, saying that it’s possible Republican voters could significantly tighten some of those races as the remaining ballots are counted.
“The thing that makes it hard to discern is that a disproportionate number of the ballots that remain to be counted are going to be the election night returns, and those are going to be disproportionately Republican because those voters have been told not to vote by mail and they don’t trust vote by mail,” he said. “My guess is you’re gonna see still a shift in the responses — something akin to a ‘red tide.’ Democrats, the more progressive candidates, are going to be doing better now than they will at the end of the final tally.”
As the county awaits the Friday returns, here’s a closer look at how each supervisor race is looking following election night — and how the leading candidates feel about the future of the board.
Bruce Gibson holds majority in District 2 race
By far, the closest of Tuesday’s races was the contest for District 2.
In that race, Gibson is running for his fifth term on the board, facing three challengers: business owner Geoff Auslen, business owner and U.S. Marines veteran John Whitworth and retired orthopedic surgeon Bruce Jones.
A significant factor in the race has been the redrawing of the district’s boundaries, which moved the traditionally North Coast district further inland, flipping its political makeup to predominately Republican.
After Tuesday’s primary, Latner said, “You really do see the effects of the new district seeping in.”
“It looks like (Gibson’s) just got a majority now with the ballots that have been counted,” Latner said. “My guess is that may slide to something less than a majority by the time the ballots are counted. ... So I think he’s still going to have a tough race.”
From the get-go, candidates expected the race to end in a November runoff election between the top two vote-getters.
Under the primary system, a candidate must secure a 50% majority in the primary to be declared the winner. Otherwise, the competition moves to the November general election.
“Our expectation was never that we’d have the final final tonight,” Gibson said after early returns were released.
Auslen said he expects to beat Jones in the primary election, and “be in a runoff with Gibson come November,” while Jones said “it’s a little too soon to tell” if he or Auslen will make it to the general election.
“Time will tell,” Jones said. “We’ll see what the tallies are over the next couple of days.”
As of the 1 a.m. results, Jones had 16.8% of the 7,905 votes cast in the district, Auslen was close behind with 16.7% and Whitworth trailed with 13.5%.
“We are very pleased to see the results so far,” Gibson said Wednesday morning. “We are cautiously optimistic that this is going to hold.”
Gibson said he was also “very, very pleased” with the preliminary results of the other two supervisor races Tuesday night, as well as the county clerk-recorder’s race, saying they show “huge support for competent county government.”
“If indeed, if the leads in all three races hold, we will have a majority on the board that I think will be committed to constructive county government for everybody in this lovely county,” he said. “I’m excited about the possibilities.”
In District 3, Dawn Ortiz-Legg holds strong lead
If District 2 is the tightest race, then the contest for District 3 is the one with the most caveats — but also potentially the clearest winner.
The election is for a two-year partial term on the board, thanks to the early-term appointment of Ortiz-Legg following the death of Supervisor Adam Hill in 2020.
Further complicating matters, the election is for what constitutes the old District 3, which spans from part of southern SLO County into the city of San Luis Obispo, despite the district being heavily altered during redistricting.
With all that said, Ortiz-Legg had the strongest lead over fellow candidates following Tuesday’s primary.
As of 1 a.m., Ortiz-Legg had secured 64.9% of the 8,395 votes cast, compared with 31.8% for insurance business owner Stacy Korsgaden and 3.3% for retired barber Arnold Ruiz.
“It’s very nice to win a race on my own, considering that I was appointed by the governor,” Ortiz-Legg said Wednesday morning. “That’s pretty significant to actually know that the voters do support my platform.”
“I’m joyous,” Ortiz-Legg added.
She said, if elected, that her priorities are to work across the aisle and find a compromise between Republicans and Democrats.
“I really feel that people want to see a thoughtful, moderate type of leadership. So that’s kind of my brand,” Ortiz-Legg said. “It’s very welcomed in these divisive times.”
Ortiz-Legg added that she felt the board’s recent partisan decisions may have alienated some voters — from the clerk-recorder appointment process to withdrawing from the Integrated Waste Management Authority. She said she felt that may have worked in Democrats’ favor.
“I think the redistricting was the icing on the cake,” she said. “It just came to a point when people just basically lost confidence in the direction of the county under the current board majority.”
Jimmy Paulding could unseat Lynn Compton for District 4
Moving forward, the race to watch is the battle for who will represent District 4 in the South County.
After election night returns, Paulding held a marked lead over Compton — taking home 58.3% of the 9,880 votes cast compared with her 41.7%. That’s a difference of 1,594 votes.
“I think the Paulding campaign should be very pleased by the result,” Latner said, though he noted that race could also tighten over the coming weeks as more ballots are counted.
According to the SLO County Clerk-Recorder’s Office, there are 40,057 registered voters in District 4, meaning there are potentially more than 30,100 ballots still outstanding for the district — though the true number is likely significantly lower, given that a 100% voter turnout never happens.
Instead, it’s more likely there are somewhere around 2,100 ballots potentially left to be counted in the district, which would bring turnout to a more reasonable 30%. That’s on par with what experts are predicting turnout to appear like across the state.
It’s not the first time Compton and Paulding have gone head-to-head: They competed for the same supervisor seat in 2018, and Compton defeated Paulding by only 60 votes.
On Wednesday morning, Paulding said he’s feeling optimistic about the election, and excited to potentially represent District 4 on the Board of Supervisors.
“I will work for everyone in our community,” Paulding said. “I take this position — this responsibility — very seriously. I just can’t wait to get in there and serve our community.”
He thanked the community and his campaign volunteers for their support.
“We worked really, really hard, and we had an amazing groundswell of support of volunteers that were willing to, you know, walk and knock doors, and make phone calls and write postcards, and just engage in a truly grassroots campaign,” Paulding said. “I’m just so full of gratitude for all the outpouring of support from the community.”
Paulding said he thinks the election is partly a rejection of some of the board’s partisan decisions — such as the redistricting process.
“I think it’s definitely encouraged people to look at their options and say, ‘OK, is there someone in the community that we can support that isn’t so brazenly partisan?’ ” Paulding said.
Paulding also said he felt South County voters are looking for new leadership to tackle issues in the district.
“We haven’t seen the leadership that we need,” Paulding said. “People, as I talked to them door-to-door, they’re constantly raising the issue of what are we doing to tackle the homelessness problems? What are we doing to secure reliable sources of water for our future? What are we doing to make our community more safe?”
Compton did not respond to Tribune requests for comment Tuesday and Wednesday.
This story was originally published June 8, 2022 at 1:56 PM.
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