Did SLO County turn the corner on COVID in February? Here’s a look at the sudden drop
After hitting an all-time peak in January, the number of new COVID-19 cases reported in San Luis Obispo County dropped in Februatry to its lowest point in months.
That could potential signaling a turning point in local efforts to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus.
According to data from the California Department of Public Health, San Luis Obispo County reported only 1,853 new COVID-19 cases in February, a 75% decrease from January’s whopping 7,437 cases.
In January, there was an average of about 240 local coronavirus cases per day. In February, the average was down to 66 cases per day.
February’s case numbers were not only significantly down from those in January, but they were also some of the lowest case numbers in months.
As a whole, the number of new monthly coronavirus cases in February was the lowest it has been since Halloween, before back-to-back holidays led to a rapid increase in coronavirus cases at the end of 2020 and into early 2021.
San Luis Obispo County Public Health Officer Dr. Penny Borenstein said the drastic change in February’s numbers was likely due to the passing of the holiday season.
“To some extent, there is natural curves,” she said at a news conference on Wednesday. “We had the holidays. We had a lot of indoor gatherings, a lot of travel, etc.”
Borenstein urged people to not get complacent, however, or think everything has automatically improved.
“I think we passed those moments,” she said, “and we need to not repeat that with any of the upcoming weeks and months.”
How February COVID-19 cases compared in SLO County communities
In San Luis Obispo County, February presented a dramatically different coronavirus picture than January.
In January, the number of new positive cases of COVID-19 rocketed skyward across the entire county.
Between Jan. 1 and Jan. 30, San Luis Obispo County’s five largest communities (San Luis Obispo, Paso Robles, Atascadero, Arroyo Grande and Nipomo) reported more than 500 new coronavirus cases each. Paso Robles reported the biggest hike, with 1,174 new cases during that time.
By February, those numbers tapered off sharply.
The county’s seven cities each reported at least 50% fewer coronavirus cases in February than in January.
In the South County, Arroyo Grande, Grover Beach and Pismo Beach each reported 75% fewer cases in February than in the previous month — the largest percentage decrease in cases among the seven cities.
In San Luis Obispo and Paso Robles, the two San Luis Obispo County cities that have been hit hardest by coronavirus, the number of new COVID-19 cases dropped as well.
Paso Robles reported 417 new cases of coronavirus in February, roughly 64.5% fewer than in January, while San Luis Obispo added 493 cases, a 52.3% decrease month-over-month.
San Luis Obispo County’s most impacted unincorporated communities — Nipomo, Oceano and Templeton — reported decreases ranging from 67% to 76% in terms of the number of new coronavirus cases between January and February.
Number of local deaths due to coronavirus still high
The one area where San Luis Obispo County continues to struggle is the number of deaths due to coronavirus.
Though those who have died locally due to COVID-19 make up a relatively small portion of the population that has tested positive for the virus — about 1.2% as of Wednesday — but the death toll has seen a sharp rise since November.
In February, the county Public Health Department officially recognized 58 new coronavirus-related deaths — the second highest monthly death toll over the course of the pandemic.
That figure was only outpaced by December’s death count, when 95 local deaths due to COVID-19 were confirmed.
These numbers don’t necessarily represent actual deaths in that month. Deaths due to coronavirus are subject to review by the Public Health Department and the San Luis Obispo County Sheriff-Coroner’s Office, so there can be delays during the review process and coronavirus-related deaths being reported.
For this reason, these numbers can lag behind more real-time data such as case counts.
Notably, the number of reported coronavirus-related deaths of residents age 85 and up — by far the most impacted group — dropped from about 43 in January to about 24 in February. (The data isn’t exact because the county does not provide demographic information on individual deaths over weekends, and both January and February ended on weekends.)
Deaths due to COVID-19 also dropped in the 65-to-84 age group, from 33 in January to 23 in February. Meanwhile, coronavirus-related deaths of individuals between the ages of 30 and 64 stayed roughly the same — with 10 each month.
No coronavirus-related deaths have been confirmed for county residents 29 and younger.
How is coronavirus vaccine distribution going?
Even as local COVID-19 numbers have been falling from their holiday highs, the county has been frantically working to vaccinate as many people as possible to help cut off further spread.
The county Public Health Department began inoculating residents in late December, but really ramped up its efforts in January and February.
In January, San Luis Obispo County administered about 16,468 doses of the coronavirus vaccine, according to the county’s vaccine dashboard. In February, the county upped that to about 27,693 doses.
This includes first and second doses of both the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines. The Johnson and Johnson single-dose vaccine has not yet been made available in San Luis Obispo County.
In short, roughly 16,226 people received at least one dose of the vaccine in February, up 22% from 13,297 in January.
How is March going so far?
February’s sharp decline in coronavirus numbers set up good things for March.
The county began March with the lowest adjusted case rate — the number of cases per 100,000 people per day, with additional caveats for the number of tests being conducted and other factors — and positivity rate, the number of positive cases per tests conducted, since early November.
On Wednesday, the county was able to re-enter the red tier of the state’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy, thanks to a downturn in those numbers.
At Wednesday’s news conference, Borenstein began her weekly update with “nothing but good news for a change.”
“It’s been going in a good direction, but today we’ve got quite a few things to talk about in a positive direction,” she told reporters. “First of all, it’s taken us weeks to get from 19,000 (total positive cases) to ... 20,000. So that’s good. We’re creeping up, but we are still staying below that 20,000 level at 19,751 COVID cases since the beginning.”
Borenstein also noted that the number of active coronavirus cases in the county is on the decline.
As of Wednesday, 422 people were recovering from the new coronavirus in San Luis Obispo County, the lowest number of active cases since Nov. 9.
Though things are currently looking up, Borenstein urged everyone to be cautious and keep doing their part to prevent the spread.
“There is always an opportunity for us to get back into a surge,” she said. “It’s why I keep saying the same things repeatedly about, until we really tamp down this virus once and for all, we really need to continue to do all the protective measures.”
This story was originally published March 4, 2021 at 9:30 AM.
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