Election 2020 is over, but speculation about 2022 is just beginning in SLO County
With the swearing in Wednesday of newly appointed Third District Supervisor Dawn Ortiz-Legg to fill out the term of the late Adam Hill on the San Luis Obispo County Board of Supervisors, the jockeying for position begins.
The memory of the 2020 election isn’t even cold, yet speculation about the 2022 campaign for that seat is already heating up.
Given the historic leftward tilt of District 3, the power of incumbency should work in favor of Ortiz-Legg. She was appointed by Gov. Gavin Newsom in a field of some five other Democratic women who applied for the job.
Among the serious contenders were Grover Beach City Councilwoman Mariam Shah, SLO City Councilwoman Erica Stewart, former SLO mayor and 3rd District Supervisor Peg Pinard, and local attorneys Kara Woodruff and Erica Baltodano — each of them smart, well-qualified and accomplished.
That Ortiz-Legg got the nod is testament to her professionalism as Hill’s county planning commissioner for the past several years and her decades of experience in business, land use and energy policy.
In their quest for the seat, these six women went through an endorsement process by the SLO County Democratic Central Committee. Shah came out on top in that endeavor, which goes to show party politics wasn’t the only factor in Ortiz-Legg’s selection.
It remains to be seen if any of these qualified women decides to square off against Ortiz-Legg in the June 2022 primary election. It’s unlikely, as the moderate Ortiz-Legg should connect soundly with a broad swath of both Democrats and independents, staving off competition from the left, positioning her well for any challenge from the right.
District 3 is solidly Democratic — as of last week, 42% Democrat, 29% Republican, 22% no party preference (NPP). It’s not a “purple” district, as some on the right might wish
This conceit of the right is most likely based on the March 2020 primary election, in which Republican challenger Stacy Korsgaden waged a scorched-earth campaign against a temperamentally weakened Hill, running for his fourth four-year term.
Democrat Hill’s unusually close — for the Third District — 2.7 percent margin of victory over Republican Korsgaden may have led some to believe the district was turning more conservative. Given the numbers, it’s clearly not.
The real reason for such a tight outcome most likely was Hill’s declining state of mind and body. That and his inability or unwillingness to refute Korsgaden’s withering distortions of his personal life and professional background. Korsgaden’s and her party supporters’ cascading assault of dark untruths would make anyone question why they’d run for public office at all.
If Korsgaden or some other ill-fitting Trumpist “conservative” makes a go at Ortiz-Legg in 2022, they’ll have a formidable opponent who’s prepared for the right’s gutter-ball game this time around. As they say in sports, “bring it.”
There’s also some chatter that the decennial redrawing of district boundaries may have a bearing on the 2022 supervisory election, when 2nd District Supervisor Bruce Gibson and 4th District Supervisor Lynn Compton are also on the ballot.
That, too, is unlikely, considering the county’s modest growth rate over the past decade and the relatively stable population bases in each of the county’s five supervisory districts.
According to a recently released estimate, prepared for the county by a consulting firm pitching its services for the redistricting project, the variations of population between districts has been relatively minor over the past decade. This means district boundaries may not move that much next year.
If they shift at all, the most likely scenario shows some movement between districts 2 and 3, both solidly Democratic. District 2’s voter profile: 55 percent Democrat, 26 percent Republican, 21 percent NPP. So, it’s a wash.
Another key factor in the 2022 local elections is whether or not the state will once again conduct a 100 percent vote-by-mail (VBM) program, as it did in this year of record-setting voter turnout during a global pandemic and a changing of the White House guard.
All told, the election of 2020 was one for the ages.
It’s been reported the Legislature is considering extending VBM to permanent status, but the outcome of this discussion is unknown, as is the potential cost.
Hopefully, the election of 2022 won’t be as exciting — as in, no one will have to risk their lives to vote — but expect our county Board of Supervisor races to be hard fought.
The results could prove exhilarating, depending upon whose side you’re on.
Tribune Columnist Tom Fulks serves on the San Luis Obispo County Democratic Central Committee.