I just paid $9.99 for a carton of 18 eggs. Will prices in California ever drop? | Opinion
First, it was toilet paper.
Then gasoline.
Now it’s eggs — that humble staple of the breakfast table — that have become precious commodities.
For a while, it was hard to even find them.
Desperate home cooks took to social media to plead for tips on where to buy a carton of eggs.
That shortage appears to have eased; experts say demand cooled after the Christmas holiday, though it will peak again at Easter.
Yet prices remain high — so much so that egg smuggling now appears to be a thing. The New York Times just reported an uptick in seizures of eggs that folks have tried to illegally sneak in from Mexico.
And just as it was gas, California again seems to be taking the brunt of it.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, last month the average cost of a dozen eggs was $4.25.
$4.25?
In San Luis Obispo County, a dozen eggs can cost $7 or $8 or even $9 a dozen — depending on the grandeur of the supermarket. That’s roughly double what they cost a year ago.
And here’s the thing: Eggs — like toilet paper and gasoline — are not exactly luxury items.
Just try making an omelet, or a cake, or deviled eggs without the eggs.
On the brighter side, this has given us a relatively safe topic to broach while, say, waiting in the checkout line.
No matter our political leaning, we can all commiserate about the outrageous spikes in egg prices — even if we don’t necessarily agree on the cause.
The deadly bird flu
So why are prices so high?
Some folks blame Big Poultry.
Others are hard at work trying to implicate President Biden.
But really it’s a combination of factors, including increased demand, run-of-the-mill inflation and a virulent disease.
As you’ve probably heard by now, a strain of deadly bird flu — its official name is H5N1 Avian Influenza — is wreaking havoc not just in the United States, but also in Europe, Asia and Africa.
The flu has been detected in wild birds in almost every state in the nation and nearly every county in California, including San Luis Obispo, Sacramento, Fresno and Merced.
And it’s shown up in many commercial flocks.
So far, more than 58 million birds from commercial and backyard flocks have been wiped out, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The Midwest was especially hard hit; one Iowa farm culled more than 5 million egg-laying hens and laid off 200 employees. (Chickens raised for meat are less likely to become infected.)
California’s commercial chicken flocks have so far escaped the outbreak, but since 50% of our eggs are shipped in from out-of-state, supplies here are affected too.
How long will it last?
No one’s definitively saying how long this particularly nasty strain of bird flu — some are calling it the avian version of COVID — will stick around.
Speculation ranges from extremely pessimistic to somewhat upbeat.
Atlantic magazine just dropped an article with this headline: “Get used to expensive eggs. That bird-flu outbreak fueling America’s egg shortage could be here to stay.”
The journal Science warns that it could become a “permanent threat to poultry farming and wild birds, including several endangered species.”
NPR reported that the virus “shows no sign of going away.”
Here’s part of the problem: Unlike past strains of avian flu, this one persisted during the warm summer months.
“Iowa was 110 degrees and they still got it,” Bill Mattos, president of the California Poultry Federation, told me.
Still, he’s generally optimistic about the market.
“We’re assuming if everything goes well in the next month or two, prices will come down more,” he said.
Supply shouldn’t be a problem; the laying hens in the Midwest that died or were culled have been replaced.
Extreme biosafety measures are being taken to ensure the safety of commercial flocks, including a ban on visits from members of the media hoping to get photos or video.
Workers are required to suit up in protective clothing, including gloves, booties and masks.
“Ranch workers look like they’re going to the moon or Mars or something,” Mattos said.
There is even talk of possibly developing a vaccine.
But the flu isn’t the only factor keeping prices high.
Transportation, energy, packaging and chicken feed have gone up, too, which means prices will likely remain relatively high compared to previous years.
Still, as the price of eggs declines — or we just get used to paying more — we’ll have to find something else to grouse about while we wait in the checkout line.
Hey, have you checked out the price of milk lately?
This story was originally published January 26, 2023 at 5:30 AM.
