Is SLO County due for another Miracle March? Rain is on the way

After a dry October and a nearly parched November, the storm door swung open on Thanksgiving Day and allowed a series of frigid Gulf of Alaska low-pressure systems and associated cold fronts to produce rain and snow throughout California through early January.

By the end of December, the rain season, which runs from July 1, 2019, through June 30, 2020, was slightly below average along the beaches and coastal valleys, while the inland areas were above normal.

By mid-January, the Eastern Pacific High become anchored off California and blocked incoming storms from reaching the Central Coast.

Most meteorologists thought it was the typical mid-winter dry spell, which historically last for a few weeks, even during the wettest of years.

As a mostly dry January turned into a wholly parched February, the heart of our rainfall season, many started to worry. In fact, average rainfall dropped to about a third of the average.

The lack of moisture in February drove most of California into the D0 (Abnormally Dry) to D1 (Moderate Drought) category, according to the United States Drought Monitor.

Much of San Luis Obispo County and all of Santa Barbara and Ventura counties are now listed as D1 (Moderate Drought) level as of March 10.

However, earlier this month, the Eastern Pacific High shifted into the Gulf of Alaska, which opened the storm door to the Central Coast once again. Our weather pattern changed drastically.

An intense and cold upper-level low-pressure system (530 decameters) will slowly drift southward down the coast of California on Sunday through Wednesday.

This system will bring gusty southerly winds, widespread rain, heavy mountain snow and seasonally cold temperatures throughout the Central Coast.

High temperatures will struggle to climb into the upper 50s this week.

Total rainfall amounts from Sunday into Wednesday will range between 2 and 4 inches. Snow elevations are expected to drop to around 2,500 and 3,000 feet with moderate to heavy snowfall over portions of the Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains.

The long-range models indicated a brief break in the wet weather around Thursday as this upper-level low-pressure system finally moves away from our region.

Nevertheless, another wet weather system is favored to impact most of California later on Friday into the weekend, potentially bringing another round of widespread and heavy precipitation.

Typically, we received about 3.20 inches of rain in San Luis Obispo, 2.50 in Paso Robles, and 2.60 inches in Santa Maria during March.

This March, we could see rainfall totals triple these averages, bringing our seasonal rainfall totals to slightly below normal.

This hasn’t been the first time when the “ides of March” have saved our rainfall season, as evidenced by our Miracle March in 1991 and the floods of 1995.

The 1991 Miracle March followed five years of below-normal rainfall throughout our state. California’s lakes and massive reservoirs were nearly empty.

Then the high-pressure ridge over California shifted, allowing the storm track to move over the state.

The skies opened in March 1991, and a pair of storms dropped more than 2 inches of rain during the first week — more rain than almost anyone could hope for.

Creeks that were bone-dry at the end of that February started flowing again.

Storms kept marching through the Central Coast, and by mid-March, the hills had finally turned green. California poppies began to bloom.

Rachel Parker, who lived near Morro Creek, was probably the one who coined the phrase “miracle rains” as she watched her steer munch grass growing with the late-season storms.

Her bovine had been subsisting on a flake of hay a day. To put that into perspective for non-ranching types like me, bales of hay naturally separate into layers called “flakes,” although their thickness may vary.

Depending on the type of hay, water content, and other factors, a flake usually weighs about 2 to 3 pounds but could range as high as 5 pounds.

The number of flakes beef cattle need per day varies depending upon an individual animal’s weight as well as how much water and salt and what other food sources are available. But some experienced ranchers say if there’s no grass for grazing, a 1,100-pound steer would need about 22 pounds of hay per day — or 4½ to 11 flakes.

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