Don’t put those umbrellas away just yet, SLO County. Forecast calls for more rain

This autumn continues to deliver a mixed bag of gusty Santa Lucia winds, near-record high temperatures, and — most importantly— much-needed rain.

In fact, by the middle of November, most Central Coast weather stations were already reporting above-normal precipitation for the month.

The wettest November on record occurred in 1965, when Paso Robles measured 5.2 inches of rain and San Luis Obispo recorded 7.8 inches. In Santa Barbara County, Santa Maria received 4.7 inches, while Santa Barbara collected nearly 7 inches.

Interestingly, despite the 1965 rainy season starting in spectacular fashion in November, it ultimately finished below average, with Cal Poly recording a total of just 15.2 inches.

As the numerical weather models indicate, November rainfall records could be challenged — particularly in Santa Barbara County — by the end of this work week as an exceedingly wet pattern takes shape.

A cutoff low-pressure system near Point Conception will drift slowly eastward, bringing moderate-to-fresh (13 to 24 mph) west to southwesterly winds and widespread rain on Saturday.

Should this system develop as projected, rainfall totals of 1.5 to 2.25 inches are expected across San Luis Obispo County, with 2.25 to 4.5 inches possible in Santa Barbara County.

Cutoff lows are famously unpredictable and can humble even the most confident meteorologist, and here’s why: At our latitude, the jet stream — typically a tubular ribbon of fast-moving winds 18,000 to 40,000 feet above the surface — guides storms from the Pacific Ocean eastward toward California.

Once a low-pressure system detaches from this main flow, its speed and direction become difficult, if not nearly impossible, to predict. These systems can stall for days or even drift westward back out to sea.

Because of this, the numerical weather models that meteorologists rely on often diverge dramatically when a cutoff low forms, mirroring the erratic movement of the system itself.

As the late KABC-TV Los Angeles forecaster “Dr. George” Fischbeck famously said, “A cutoff low is a weatherman’s woe.”

With that said, partly to mostly cloudy skies with a few scattered showers are expected on Sunday.

A 999-millibar storm is then projected to develop off Cape Mendocino, with its cold front sweeping across our area on Monday.

Strong to gale-force (25 to 38 mph with gusts up to 45 mph) southerly winds and periods of moderate to heavy rain are likely. This storm may produce 0.75 to 1.50 inches of rain throughout the Central Coast.

Moderate to fresh (13 to 24 mph) northwesterly winds with a few lingering showers are expected Tuesday, followed by dry conditions on Wednesday.

Looking ahead, an even stronger storm may arrive on Thursday and Friday — potentially the most powerful in the series.

By next weekend, Santa Lucia (northeasterly) winds are expected to produce mostly clear skies and dry conditions, aside from pockets of overnight and morning dense fog and stratus clouds on the ridgelines of the Santa Lucia and coastal mountains.

Beyond that, dry weather is anticipated through the following week.

Surf report

A 5- to 7-foot northwesterly (290-degree, deep water) swell (with a 7 -to 11-second period) is forecast along our coastline on Saturday, becoming 4- to 6-foot southerly (180-degree, shallow water) seas on Sunday.

These seas will build to 9 to 11 feet (with a 4- to 12-second period) on Monday.

A 7- to 9-foot westerly (270-degree, deep water) swell (with an 8- to 14-second period) is forecast this Tuesday, decreasing to 3 to 5 feet with the same period on Wednesday.

A 12- to 14-foot westerly (270-degree, deep water) sea and swell (with a 5- to 15-second period) is expected Thursday into Friday, decreasing next weekend.

Seawater temperatures will range between 59 and 62 degrees through Friday.

On this date in weather history (Nov. 16)

1959: The most severe November cold wave in U.S. history was in progress. A weather observing station located 14 miles northeast of Lincoln, Montana, reported a reading of 53 degrees below 0 degrees, which established an all-time record low temperature for the nation for the month of November. Their high that day was 1 degree above 0 degrees. (David Ludlum)

2016: A weak cold front dissipated over the Central Coast. This system produced strong to gale-force (25- to 38-mph) northwesterly winds, partly cloudy skies, cooler temperatures and a few scattered rain showers over the inland mountains. Snow levels dropped to 4,500 feet across the Sierra Nevada.

This week’s temperatures

LOWS AND HIGHS, PASO ROBLES

LOWS AND HIGHS, SAN LUIS OBISPO AND COASTAL VALLEYS

John Lindsey is a retired PG&E marine meteorologist. Email him at JohnLindseyLosOsos@gmail.com or follow him on X @PGE_John.

This story was originally published November 16, 2025 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Don’t put those umbrellas away just yet, SLO County. Forecast calls for more rain."