SLO County to get Jekyll-and-Hyde weather: From hot temps to a chance of rain

Clear, dry and warm weather will persist through Monday, before turning cooler and cloudy from Veterans Day to Wednesday.

Drizzle-gentle rain is expected to develop from Thursday into Friday, followed by increasing northwesterly winds and a return to dry conditions next weekend.

A strong ridge of high pressure over Northern and Central California will produce moderate to fresh (13 to 24 mph) and occasionally gusty Santa Lucia (northeasterly) winds during the night and morning through Monday.

High temperatures will range from the low to upper 80s across the Central Coast through Monday.

Record highs for this period in San Luis Obispo — set in 1956 — range from the low to mid-90s, while Paso Robles records from that same year sit in the mid-80s to low 90s, meaning Paso Robles could challenge or even break daily records.

The ridge will weaken from Veterans Day through Wednesday, allowing cooler air and increasing cloud cover to move in. However, the Eastern Pacific high off the Central Coast will keep the main storm track focused over Oregon and far Northern California.

A robust cold front is forecast to move through the Central Coast on Thursday, bringing gentle to moderate (8 to 18 mph) southerly winds, thickening clouds and periods of drizzle to light rain.

Rainfall totals are expected to be between 0.10 and 0.25 of an inch across most areas, with up to 1 inch possible along the Santa Lucia and coastal mountains due to orographic lift.

Behind the front, expect fresh to strong (19 to 31 mph) north to northwesterly winds, clearing skies and mild temperatures next weekend.

Looking further ahead, the following week appears unsettled, with a favorable chance of additional rain.

Surf report

A 5- to 7-foot northwesterly (290-degree, deep water) swell (with an 8- to 15-second period) is forecast along our coastline through Monday, decreasing to 3 to 5 feet (with an 8- to 14-second period) Tuesday through Thursday morning.

A 6- to 8-foot westerly (270-degree, deep water) swell (with an 8- to 17-second period) is forecast on Thursday afternoon and night, building to 8 to 10 feet (with a 7- to 15-period) on Friday.

A 6- to 8-foot northwesterly (305-degree, deep water) sea and swell (with a 5- to 12-second period) is forecast next weekend.

Arriving from the Southern Hemisphere, a 1- to 2-foot southerly (210-degree, deep water) swell (with a 15- to 17-second period) will arrive along our coastline on Wednesday and will remain at this level through Friday.

Seawater temperatures will range between 58 and 60 degrees through Friday, cooling next weekend due to increasing amounts of upwelling.

On this date in weather history (Nov. 9)

1975: Another “freshwater fury” hit the Great Lakes. The Edmund Fitzgerald, a large ore carrier on Lake Superior, sank near Crisp Point with the loss of its crew of 29 men. Eastern Upper Michigan and coastal Lower Michigan were hit the hardest by the storm, which produced wind gusts up to 71 mph at Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan, and gusts up to 78 mph at Grand Rapids, Michigan. Severe land and road erosion occurred along the Lake Michigan shoreline. A popular hit song by Gordon Lightfoot was inspired by the storm.

2017: Rocky Butte received about three-quarters of an inch of much-needed rain, while Cambria reported roughly a quarter of an inch. Farther south, most other locations across San Luis Obispo County picked up around a tenth of an inch. This system closely resembles last Wednesday’s cold front, which also delivered nearly three-quarters of an inch of rain at Rocky Butte due to orographic enhancement, while most other areas saw only about a tenth of an inch.

This week’s temperatures

LOWS AND HIGHS, PASO ROBLES

SUNDAY: 49, 89

MONDAY: 50, 90

TUESDAY: 51, 82

WEDNESDAY: 51, 74

THURSDAY: 52, 67

FRIDAY: 50, 62

SATURDAY: 49, 71

SUNDAY: 50, 78

LOWS AND HIGHS, SAN LUIS OBISPO AND COASTAL VALLEYS

SUNDAY: 57, 86

MONDAY: 55, 87

TUESDAY: 56, 77

WEDNESDAY: 54, 70

THURSDAY: 55, 68

FRIDAY: 52, 63

SATURDAY: 54, 70

SUNDAY: 53, 75

John Lindsey is a retired PG&E marine meteorologist. Email him at JohnLindseyLosOsos@gmail.com or follow him on X @PGE_John.