Break out your umbrellas, SLO County. Rain showers and wind are in the weather forecast

In a typical La Niña weather pattern, average rainfall totals by the end of February show a marked decline in San Luis Obispo County and Santa Barbara County.

Mid-February storms boosted Rocky Butte’s rainfall total to 26.4 inches — 91% of the seasonal average.

At the Paso Robles Municipal Airport, February’s 2.6 inches of rain improved its total to 54% of the seasonal norm.

The San Luis Obispo County Regional Airport recorded 6 inches for the month, reaching 68% of its usual total by this time of year.

Further south, the Santa Maria Airport reported 4 inches (43% of average), while the Santa Barbara Municipal Airport measured 4.46 inches, increasing from 14% to 35% of the normal amount of rain by the end of February.

Although the month concluded with dry conditions and near-to-record-high temperatures, the first half of March looks to be more unsettled, bringing periods of rain and cooler temperatures.

In fact, a few of the models showed a miracle March scenario, but have since backed off.

Two upper-level low-pressure systems off the California coastline and associated cold front will produce scattered convective rain showers on Sunday through Monday.

Rainfall totals should be uniform between the coast and inland areas with most Central Coast locations recording between a tenth and a third of an inch of rain.

Snow levels are forecast to drop to 3,500 feet.

The main impact will be much cooler temperatures and strong to gale-force (25 to 38 mph) northwesterly winds on Sunday through Monday.

Morning temperatures will drop to the mid to high-30s in inland valleys (Paso Robles) and the mid-40s in coastal valleys (San Luis Obispo) and along the beaches.

Daytime highs will only reach the upper 50s on Sunday through Monday.

A series of low-pressure systems will continue to move into Northern California and Oregon on Tuesday through Friday with rain and snow.

Even those these systems won’t produce any measurable rain along the Central Coast, they will bring variable amounts of cloudiness and gale-force northwesterly winds along the coastline.

These winds could reach moderate gale-force to fresh gale-force (32 to 46 mph) levels on Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.

Moderate to fresh (13 to 24 mph) Santa Lucia (northeasterly) winds will produce mostly clear and warmer weather on Friday through next Sunday.

Temperatures over this period will gradually warm to the 60s into the low 70s.

Long-range models indicate a chance of increasing southerly winds and moderate to heavy rain on the March 9 and 10.

Surf report

Gale force northwesterly winds along the California coastline will generate an 8- to 10- foot northwesterly (305-degree deep water) sea and swell (with a 5- to 17-second period) on Sunday, increasing to 10- to 12-feet on Monday.

This northwesterly sea and swell will decrease to 5- to 7-feet (with a 7- to 14-second period) on Tuesday, increasing to 8- to 10-feet (with a 5- to 17-second period) on Wednesday and will remain at this level through Thursday.

A 5- to 7-foot northwesterly (290-degree deep water) swell (with an 8- to 15-second period) is forecast on Friday into next Sunday.

Surface seawater temperatures will range between 51 and 53 degrees through next Sunday.

On this date in weather history (March 2)

1927: Raleigh, North Carolina, was buried under 17.8 inches of snow in 24 hours, a record for that location. Nashville, North Carolina, received 31 inches of snow. The average snow depth in the state of Carolina was 14 inches.

1989: Snow and high winds plagued the western United States. Up to 16 inches of snow was reported south of Seattle, Washington, and more than 2 feet of snow blanketed the Sierra Nevada Range of California. Winds gusted to 89 mph at Hidden Peak, Utah, and reached 92 mph at Peavine, California. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2015: Thunderstorms produced periods of heavy rain, hail and gusty winds in many areas of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties.

2018: Over the last 24 hours, the Diablo Canyon rain gauge recorded three-quarters of an inch of rain. Further north, rain totals were much greater with Rocky Butte recording 6 inches, Dawn Dunlap at Walter Ranch reporting nearly 4 inches, while Cambria recorded nearly 2 inches. Further south, Templeton, Atascadero, Baywood Park and Camp San Luis Obispo all recorded about 1.5 inches. However, south of Diablo Canyon, most locations recorded about a half of an inch of rain.

This week’s temperatures

LOWS AND HIGHS, PASO ROBLES

LOWS AND HIGHS, SAN LUIS OBISPO AND COASTAL VALLEYS

John Lindsey is a retired PG&E marine meteorologist. Email him at JohnLindseyLosOsos@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter @PGE_John.