Strong El Niño is in the forecast for winter. What does that mean for SLO County weather?
El Niño could be bringing another warm, wet winter to San Luis Obispo County.
The El Niño phenomenon is created when seawater temperatures along the surface of the Pacific Ocean near the equator heat up above historical averages, impacting weather conditions along the western United States.
Climate models are predicting that the ocean water surface temperatures will increase enough in October through February to allow moisture-rich air to rise and develop into strong rainstorms.
Whether or not those rainstorms hit SLO County depends on the location of the jet stream, a concentrated area of strong wind currents that can blow storms through a specific area.
During about 75% of the years where strong El Niño events occurred in California in the past, there was above-average rainfall, said John Lindsey, a retired meteorologist for PG&E.
“Chances are high that we’re going to have back-to-back wet winters,” Lindsey said.
On average, those wet El Niño years saw 140% of normal rainfall amounts, according to Lindsey.
This year would be the 12th strong El Niño for the Central Coast, he added.
Along with above-average rainfall, the Central Coast can expect somewhat warmer temperatures during the strong El Niño event, Lindsey said.
With climate change across the globe, scientist predict El Niño and its sister phenomenon, La Niña, which occurs when ocean surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific Ocean are colder than average, to become more intense and frequent.
This story was originally published September 4, 2023 at 5:00 AM.
CORRECTION: This story was updated to clarify that the most recent El Niño event was in 2018-19.
