Cold and windy week ahead for SLO County. Here’s when we might next see rain

Last week, a series of cold fronts produced gusty southerly winds and periods of rain. Locations in the Santa Lucia mountains between Cambria and Lake Nacimiento recorded over four inches of rain.

This week, a classic November Central Coast weather pattern will develop as a ridge of high pressure remains firmly anchored over the Great Basin. This area of high pressure will create gusty Santa Lucia (northeasterly) winds during the night and morning, cold and crisp mornings, and dry conditions this workweek.

Like this date in 2018, a strong but dirty range of high pressure will allow a dissipating cold front to produce variable high-level clouds but no rain on Sunday morning. The main impact of this front will be fresh to strong (19 to 31 mph) post-frontal northwesterly winds on Saturday afternoon and night.

A dry airmass combined with mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to drop to freezing levels in the inland valleys and a few wind-sheltered coastal valleys. Daytime highs will range from the low 60s at the beaches to the low to mid-60s in the coastal valleys (San Luis Obispo) and the inland valleys (Paso Robles).

A pattern of moderate to fresh (13 to 24 mph) Santa Lucia (northeasterly) winds developing during the night and morning, shifting out of the northwest during the afternoon, will start Sunday and will continue through Thursday. These winds will keep the marine layer out to sea. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, the jet stream will flow from British Columbia southward through California, keeping the air temperatures below seasonal averages.

Persistent northwesterly winds, increasing to fresh to strong (19 to 31 mph) levels during the afternoon, will allow the marine layer to develop along the coastline and surge inland overnight with pockets of fog and mist on Friday into Saturday.

The long-range models do not indicate any rain through Thanksgiving Day; however, rain could develop on Nov. 27, 28 and 29.

Surf report

Intense storms in the mid-Pacific will generate long-period swells this week. The first swell train will arrive along our coastline on Sunday at 5- to 7-feet (with an 11- to 20-second period), increasing to 6- to 8 feet (with a 16- to 18-second period) on Monday into Tuesday. This northwesterly swell will decrease to 4- to 6-feet (with an 8- to 13-second period) on Wednesday.

A 5- to 7-foot northwesterly (305-degree, deep-water) sea and swell (with a 7- to 17-second period) will develop along our coastline on Thursday into Friday.

Seawater temperatures will range between 53 and 55 degrees through Friday.

This weekend’s date in weather history (Nov. 13)

1974: A great Alaska storm in the Bering Sea caused the worst coastal flooding of memory at Nome AK with a tide of 13.2 feet.

1981: A powerful storm brought high winds to Washington State and Oregon. The cyclone, which formed about 1,000 miles west of San Francisco, intensified rapidly as it approached the Oregon coast with the central pressure reaching 28.22 inches (956 millibars). A wind trace from the Whiskey Run Turbine Site, about 12 miles south of Coos Bay in Oregon, showed peak gusts to 97 mph fifty feet above ground level. The wind caused widespread damage in Washington and Oregon. As much as four feet of snow fell in the Sierra Nevada Range of northern California.

2018: A strong but dirty range of high pressure will allow a dissipating cold front to produce variable high-level clouds today.

This week’s temperatures

LOWS AND HIGHS, PASO ROBLES

LOWS AND HIGHS, SAN LUIS OBISPO AND COASTAL VALLEYS

John Lindsey’s is a longtime meteorologist who lives in Los Osos. Email him at JohnLindseyLosOsos@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter @PGE_John.

This story was originally published November 13, 2022 at 5:30 AM.