Republicans lead all three SLO County supervisor races, with thousands of ballots left
Update: Conservatives lead in all 3 SLO County supervisor races. Will board shift further right?
Update, 11:34 p.m.
New election results show Ellen Beraud trailing Debbie Arnold with 43% compared to 57% of 14,287 ballots counted so far in the race to become District 5 supervisor.
That’s with all polling place ballots reporting, as well as vote-by-mail ballots received by the county elections office before Saturday night. Still left to be counted in the coming days: thousands of vote by mail ballots and conditional ballots.
Here’s how the other two county supervisor races look at the end of the night:
In District 1, John Peschong leads Stephanie Shakofsky, 67% to 33% with 13,491 ballots counted.
In District 5, Stacy Korsgaden leads Adam Hill, 51% to 48% with 14,576 ballots counted.
Read below to see what candidates across the county had to say about these results and what they mean.
Update, 11:09 p.m.
Speaking from her Election night party at Wild Field’s Brew House in Atascadero, District 5 supervisor candidate Ellen Beraud remained hopeful that the ongoing ballot count will close the 14-point gap between her and Debbie Arnold.
“I’m assuming it’s going to be close,” Beraud said as the party was winding down. “But I’m hoping to be victorious.”
As she walked her district to garner support in the last few days, she said, she heard from a lot of people waiting for Election Day to turn in their ballots for the Presidential primary to see what happened.
Those late arriving vote by mail ballots have not yet been counted. Whether it will shift enough in her favor is yet to be seen.
“I think there’s a lot of vote by mail ballots. That’s what I’m counting on to make up the difference,” she said.
Earlier in the night, Arnold said in a phone interview from Republican headquarters, that she is relieved with her strong lead, but is “still on pins and needles.”
Update, 10:31 p.m.
Incumbent candidate Adam Hill is closing what was a wide gap with challenger Stacy Korsgaden in the most recent election results. This later count reflects more poll voters, who tend to lean liberal in this election cycle.
Hill now has 49% of the vote to Korsgaden’s 51%.
Meanwhile, Debbie Arnold’s lead decreased a bit to 57%, with Ellen Beraud showing 43%.
And, John Peschong has maintained a commanding lead over Stephanie Shakofsky with 67.5% to 32.5% of the vote.
Republican Peschong wasn’t ready to claim victory during a phone conversation from his North County home Tuesday night, only saying, “we’re trending in the right direction” and “I’m cautiously optimistic.”
He’s an experienced political operative who ran campaigns across the country including as a regional director in John McCain’s presidential bid. He had a clear campaign strategy to win against a Democratic newcomer.
“We defined our opponent early. She was a fresh, new face in the community and we had to lay out who she was,” Peschong said, referencing a radio attack ad.
He said his campaign walked close to 14,000 homes and “talked to all kinds of people,” which is where, he said, “the homeless issue kept coming up.”
“I’ve got my work cut out for me,” he said.
He has announced that if elected, this would be his last term.
Update, 9:30 p.m.
Debbie Arnold continues to lead over challenger Ellen Beraud in the second round of election night results — but the gap between them is shrinking as ballot counts come in from polling places.
In District 5, incumbent Debbie Arnold has 58% of the vote to Ellen Beraud’s 42%.
In District 3, challenger Stacy Korsgaden leads Adam Hill 51% to 49%.
In District 1, incumbent John Peschong leads Stephanie Shakofsky 68% to 32%.
This is the first round of results from election night to include ballot counts from polling places, which are expected to lean more liberal than early returns from vote-by-mail.
That expectation is demonstrated in District 5 returns. Of the votes made at polling places counted so far, 77 were for Arnold, while 288 were for Beraud.
Vote-by-mail ballots, on the other hand, skewed toward Arnold with 5,701 compared to Beraud’s 3,916.
That trend is reflected in District 3 as well, though not to the same extent.
Of votes counted so far from polling places, 859 were for Hill and 596 were for Korsgaden.
Original story
In District 3, challenger Stacy Korsgaden, a Republican, took an early lead over incumbent, Democrat Adam Hill, 53% to 47%.
In District 1, incumbent John Peschong, Republican, led over challenging Democrat Stephanie Shakofsky, 68% to 32%.
Debbie Arnold took a big, early lead over challenger Ellen Beraud in the District 5 San Luis Obispo County Board of Supervisors race, according to the first round of election results posted shortly after 8 p.m.
Incumbent Arnold had 59% of the vote to Beraud’s 41%, but Beraud’s campaign said they’re looking forward to big gains as thousands more votes are counted.
The first batch of results included vote-by-mail ballots received by the county elections office by Saturday night. The next release tonight will include the first set of ballots cast today at the polls.
As for the other two county supervisor races:
In District 3, challenger Stacy Korsgaden, a Republican, took an early lead over incumbent, Democrat Adam Hill, 53% to 47%.
In District 1, incumbent John Peschong, Republican, led over challenging Democrat Stephanie Shakofsky, 68% to 32%.
Beraud’s campaign expected the early results to skew conservative.
“We’re looking forward to seeing the results as they continue to come in, and we believe they will be more in our favor as that happens,” campaign manger James Sofranco said from an election night party at Wild Field’s Brew House in Atascadero.
These early votes are more likely to lean conservative because many Democratic and No Party Preference voters held back on casting their ballots in order to assess the presidential primary field.
The congressional race between Andy Caldwell and Salud Carbajal can serve as a bellwether guide to that point. While Carbajal is expected to end up as the top vote-getter in the overall district, his first results showed him trailing in SLO County 46% to 51%.
That’s why, even though she had a large lead, Arnold said she’s “still on pins and needles.”
Still, “I feel comfortable,” Arnold said from Republican headquarters in Atascadero. “It feels good to have a good number like that. I’m feeling a little bit relieved and looking forward to the final count.”
These unofficial results will mark the beginning of the end of an ugly and expensive election in SLO County that led to $1.2 million in campaign contributions that went on to fund bitter tactics.
While the barrage of attack ads, nefarious accusations and shady robocalls will end on Election Day, final results of the election won’t be available for several days, if not weeks, due to the logistics involved in processing vote-by-mail ballots and ballots from same-day registrations.
What’s at stake when the results are in?
The final results of the three races could result in a political shake-up over who controls the county board — and ultimately what policies will be implemented to address the major and growing problems of a lack of affordable housing and a growing number of residents living without permanent shelter.
A new board makeup could also shape a different future for the growing cannabis industry that’s been stunted by county regulations.
The board has been run by a three-person conservative majority that includes John Peschong, Debbie Arnold and Lynn Compton. Compton narrowly escaped losing her seat to Democrat newcomer Jimmy Pauling in 2018. Peschong and Arnold are up for re-election this round.
While the county remains politically diverse — or divided, depending on your perspective — the number of registered Democrats exceeds the number of registered Republicans in the county as of this election cycle.
Here’s the party breakdown by county district:
- District 1: 28% Democrat, 44% Republican and 28% other.
- District 3: 41% Democrat, 30% Republican and 29% other.
- District 5: 34% Democrat, 37% Republican and 29% other.
Campaigns got ugly as money poured in
Supervisor candidates collectively raked in more than $1.2 million in campaign contributions, and voters were flooded with advertisements, including radio, TV, mailers and social media.
Money came from the oil industry, PG&E, cannabis operators, unions, political parties and rich donors from out of the area.
Meanwhile, North County candidate Stephanie Shakofsky proposed a list of good government reforms, including campaign finance limitations, saying that large industry donations “have created a climate that says our county government is for sale.”
A political action committee with unclear leadership spent nearly $100,000 to hammer Beraud on a City Council vote she made 13 years ago.
Adam Hill was again the target of conservative activist Kevin P. Rice, a resident of Kern County who funded an offensive and strange robocall. Rice turned himself in to the District Attorney’s Office, which is considering whether to file criminal charges for violating campaign laws or regulations about robocalls.
This story will be updated throughout the night as more results come in. Check back here for the latest numbers — and keep checking in with The Tribune in the coming weeks for the final election results as all vote-by-mail, provisional and conditional ballots are counted.
Final results in close races could take up to three weeks to confirm.
This story was originally published March 3, 2020 at 7:47 PM.
