Republicans are losing ground in SLO County — and a big prize is in jeopardy tonight
The Republican Party has been losing influence in San Luis Obispo County for years, leading to registered Democrats clearly outnumbering registered Republicans in this election cycle.
Conservatives still occupy the majority of seats on the county Board of Supervisors. But that could change with this election, and that loss of power over the board could reveal bigger problems for the party’s already beleaguered statewide strategy.
So, what’s happened over the years, and what does it mean?
Democrats are better at mobilizing young voters
To explain the trend, Cal Poly political science professor Michael Latner points to shifting demographics and the Democratic Party’s strong ground game to mobilize young voters.
“Young adults in San Luis Obispo are much more racially diverse than the generation that is dying off,” Latner said. “In California, for a generation, the Democrats have become the party of people of color. Where older, whiter and less educated people tend to be Republican.”
Twenty years ago, more than 43% of registered voters in the county were Republican. Now, it’s about 34.7%.
Even as the population of eligible voters has grown, the party actually lost voters — 3,351 to be exact — while the number of voters registered Democrat grew by 12,628 in the same time period and now makes up 35% of SLO County’s electorate, according to voter registration statistics from the Secretary of State.
The Democratic Party is simply more effective at mobilizing new voters, Latner said. Of course, the person at the top of the ballot in the presidential race plays a role as well, and often prompts increased grassroots organizing.
The GOP simply isn’t gaining traction.
Does that mean the county is a bastion of liberalism? Not really.
In raw numbers, Democrats only exceed Republicans in SLO County 64,100 to 61,587.
The number of people who registered no party preference more than doubled since 2000 and now makes up a whopping 20% of registered voters in the county — that includes people who are more left than the Democratic Party and more right than the Republican Party.
Conservatives maintain strongholds in the North County (although some demographic shifts are taking place in Paso Robles and Atascadero). And, while the county went to Hillary Clinton in 2016, conservatives (barely) maintained power over the county Board of Supervisors when the South County re-elected conservative Lynn Compton by a mere 60 votes.
This SLO County race is a bellwether for the state
All of this has ramifications statewide.
The county serves as a bellwether guide for politics across the state, because of its political diversity.
Politicos watch the performance of strong pockets of conservative and liberal precincts, as well as those that swing back and forth, as an indicator of what is happening statewide.
That’s one reason why many people will be closely watching the results of the District 5 county race between Republican Debbie Arnold and Democrat Ellen Beraud.
“It’s going to be the race to watch. I think it’s going to be fascinating,” Latner said.
That’s, in part, because Republicans’ strategy will be put to the test.
Republicans haven’t won a statewide race in California since Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2003.
The party organization knows it’s difficult to compete in state races, so it’s been focused on retaining control at the county government level. For example, Latner pointed to the support Arnold and District 1 county Supervisor John Peschong have received from out of the county.
“Looking at the donor profiles of Peschong, Arnold and Compton, the money is coming from all over the place because it’s a firewall. The county is still one of the only places where Republicans can be competitive,” Latner said.
Arnold does have the political advantage in the district, where about 1,000 more voters are registered Republican.
It’s yet to be seen whether those voters are mobilized to show up to the primary when their party’s presidential nominee is secure. Meanwhile, Democrats have been pushing hard to mobilize voters.
While Arnold and her supporters pored hundreds of thousands of dollars into attack ads, Beraud ran a massive ground game. Last weekend, 80 volunteers canvassed the district to support the Democrat.
Ultimately, the race is bigger than the future of the county board.
If Beraud wins, Latner said, it’s “reflective of the continuing trend of the erosion of the Republican Party in the state.”
This story was originally published March 3, 2020 at 3:58 PM.
