How will SLO County get to the orange tier – and what will that look like?
San Luis Obispo County may have only moved into the red tier of coronavirus restrictions at the start of March, but some may already be wondering when it will make the jump to the next, less restrictive tier.
On Tuesday, the state announced that eight more California counties will move from red to orange under California’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy — including Los Angeles and Santa Cruz counties.
So when might San Luis Obispo County go orange? Likely not soon.
“Our case numbers are trickling — they aren’t super high, they aren’t super low,” county Public Health Officer Dr. Penny Borenstein said during a news briefing March 24.
At that time, Borenstein said San Luis Obispo County was “just barely” in the red tier and noted that health officials were seeing a small uptick in local metrics that determine reopening, such as the coronavirus case rate.
“Still we are seeing cases. We are seeing people in the hospital,” she said. “We do not want to see another surge, so the same message remains true at this time for a while longer: We need to continue with all the preventive measures of mask wearing, of distancing, of staying home when you are sick, hand washing, etc.”
What can reopen in SLO County under orange tier?
According to state guidelines, counties under the orange tier are considered to have a “moderate” rate of spread of the virus. Under the red tier, coronavirus spread is considered “substantial.”
San Luis Obispo County returned to the red tier on March 3. That means many local businesses that were being forced to stay outdoors were allowed to reopen inside, including restaurants and gyms.
Two of the biggest changes under orange tier restrictions would be the reopening of bars and offices.
In the orange tier, bars that do not serve food could once again open as long as they operate outside with social distancing regulations. (Bars that do serve food have been allowed to run as restaurants.)
Non-essential offices, which have been closed for more than a year, could also reopen, meaning an end to working at home for many people.
Wineries, breweries and distilleries could also reopen inside, with 25% capacity.
In addition, retail businesses could return to full indoor capacity, while churches, movie theaters, restaurants, museums, zoos and aquariums could all have up to 50% capacity.
Local COVID-19 case rate too high
In terms of metrics, however, San Luis Obispo County is still far away from moving into the less restrictive orange tier.
According to health department spokeswoman Michelle Shoresman, there are two ways for the county to progress to the next tier. Either its case rate and overall test positivity rate must be in orange, or both of its positivity rates — countywide and health equity — must be in the yellow.
Both of these have to last for at least two weeks for the move to the orange to tier to take place, she said.
One of the biggest hurdles to the first of these options is the county’s case rate.
Case rate is adjusted based off the number of tests conducted in the county.
As of March 30, the county’s adjusted case rate was 6.9 new cases per 100,000 people per day over a seven-day span — smack dab in the middle of the 4-to-10 range required to remain in the red tier.
To make it to orange, San Luis Obispo County’s adjusted case rate would need to drop to below four new cases per 100,000 people, though an upcoming rule change could make that slightly easier.
The California Department of Public Health has said once it has distributed 4 million dose to Californians in the bottom quartile of its Healthy Places Index, it will raise that metric to six new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people. (A quartile is a quarter of the population.)
California is expected to hit that 4 million mark within about a week.
Falling below six new cases per 100,000 people could still be somewhat difficult for San Luis Obispo County to achieve soon, in light of slight increases in the adjusted case rate over recent weeks.
The county’s adjusted case rate had steadily been falling since early January. But after hitting a low of 5.7 new cases per 100,000 people during the week of March 8, the rate for the following two weeks climbed.
Last week’s adjusted case rate of 7 was the highest it’s been since the end of February, and at 6.9, this week’s is barely any lower.
Borenstein attributed some of the increase to a local decline in COVID-19 testing.
Testing in San Luis Obispo County peaked in January, and has steadily dropped since that time.
As the number of people being tested for coronavirus drops, the county loses some of the bonus points given for high testing that makes up the adjusted case rate.
As of Tuesday, San Luis Obispo County’s unadjusted case rate was 8.4 new cases per 100,000 people.
Positivity rate metrics are in orange tier range
In the state’s two other metrics, its positivity rate and health index positivity rate, San Luis Obispo County has performed well in recent months — though these metrics too increased throughout March.
As long as the case rate remains somewhat high, the county would only be able to enter the orange tier if these two positivity rates drop into yellow for two weeks at a time.
As of March 30, San Luis Obispo County’s positivity rate — the number of positive tests compared to tests conducted — was 2.4%, which is at the very low end of the state’s orange scale.
The positivity rate in the lowest Healthy Places Index census tracts, an equity metric, was somewhat higher at 3.7%, though still well within the orange range.
The state’s mandated positivity rate for orange tier is between 2 and 4.9% and the Healthy Places Index rate is between 2.2 and 5.2%.
Both of these metrics have locally been comfortably within the orange tier since the end of February — even dipping into the yellow tier range the week of March 8.
But like the adjusted case rate, they increased slightly in mid-March, meaning a shift from the red tier to orange tier in San Luis Obispo County is unlikely for some time.
Could SLO County backslide into more restrictive tier?
Though coronavirus case numbers have been markedly lower in March than previous months, nationwide there is some concern about a fourth wave of coronavirus cases as pandemic restrictions are lessened.
Shoresman said the county is worried about possible backslides into worse tiers and potential increases in case counts.
“That has happened before, especially after holidays during which people tend to gather with others outside their households,” she told The Tribune in an email Monday. “So, we are constantly worried this could happen again.”
Shoresman said the county is urging people to “stay vigilant during the upcoming springtime holidays and in the coming months as we expand vaccination and try to get more people protected against the virus that way.”
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