Coronavirus cases are surging. What happens now that SLO County is back in the purple tier?
Update: SLO County slides back into the purple COVID tier as cases soar. Here’s what happens now
San Luis Obispo County reverted back to California’s most restrictive tier of California’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy as was expected due to a recent surge in coronavirus cases, according to county Public Health Officer Dr. Penny Borenstien.
In the purple tier, restaurants and businesses that have been allowed to operate indoors and with expanded capacity will shift back to outdoor-only operations and extremely limited capacity once more.
Some schools won’t be allowed to reopen. And it means the county’s coronavirus transmission is considered “widespread,” as opposed to “substantial.”
As of Monday, 5,250 San Luis Obispo County residents have tested positive for coronavirus. The county has broken records several days within the past few weeks in terms of daily new case counts and number of active cases.
Since Nov. 1, the county has added 940 coronavirus cases — more than the number of cases added throughout the entire month of October.
The recent surge in local COVID-19 cases follows statewide and nationwide trends of increased coronavirus transmission in recent weeks, according to the Sacramento Bee.
“No manner of testing is going to make up for the amount of cases that we’re seeing,” Borenstein said Thursday.
And she was right.
Here are some answers about what happens now that San Luis Obispo County has moved to the purple tier.
Where is SLO County at right now?
San Luis Obispo County is now back in the purple, or “substantial,” tier.
Monday marks the second consecutive week with an adjusted case rate above the threshold of the red tier — 7 new cases per day per 100,000 people. Case rate is adjusted by the number of tests conducted within the county per day.
The latest state data, released Monday, accounted for cases confirmed between Oct. 27 to Nov. 10.
The county’s adjusted average skyrocketed to 12.5 new cases per 100,000 people per day, which is 5.5 points above the level needed to qualify for the red tier, according to state data. The unadjusted case rate came in at 17.7, more than 7 points higher than data released the week prior.
The week prior, the county had an adjusted average of 7.2 new cases per 100,000 people per day, which was in the purple tier level.
San Luis Obispo County’s positivity rate was at 4.7% as of the latest data, representing a 1.7% increase from the week prior. However, ReadySLO.org shows that the county’s positivity rate was 5.1% Monday, a difference between the state’s data by .4 percentage points.
And the health equity metric has reamined at 4.8% rate for people who live in the 12 census tracts in San Luis Obispo County ranked in the lowest quarter of California’s Health Place Index. That is in the moderate tier’s range.
Why is SLO County’s case rate rising?
San Luis Obispo County has always struggled with the case rate the most in terms of state requirements for reopening. Why cases are rising even more now is a result of various factors.
Cal Poly is one of those factors. The San Luis Obispo university has seen a drastic rise in cases following multiple reported parties and gatherings between students.
Since Nov. 1, the university’s Health Center confirmed that 319 students contracted coronavirus.
Many of those students live off campus. And those numbers only reflect students who are tested through on-campus services. Cal Poly students who have received positive test results from other testing sites are not included in Cal Poly’s case count.
However, college students have not been the only ones contributing to the surge.
“I want to point out that only about half of our cases as we’re seeing these larger numbers are from the Cal Poly community,” Borenstein said Thursday.
According to Borenstein, cases have risen across the county, especially in the North County.
Borenstein said family and friend gatherings continue to be a hotbed of coronavirus spread.
“Whether it’s Cal Poly or the rest of the community, far and away, we continue to see gatherings are the main source of transmission,” Borenstein said.
Atascadero State Hospital is also experiencing a coronavirus outbreak, which has contributed to the overall rise in cases. As of Friday, 21 patients and 14 staff members have tested positive for COVID-19 within the past 14 days, according to the California Department of State Hospitals, which oversees ASH.
What happens to businesses in the purple tier?
A myriad of businesses that have been able to operate with limited indoor services will be forced to only operate outdoors once more within the next three days.
Most notably, restaurants, fitness centers, places of worship, movie theaters and entertainment or cultural centers will again need to close their indoor operations.
Other business sectors will also have to adjust back to more restrictions on indoor capacity.
The state had previously given businesses three days to adjust to new restrictions, however given the sharp rise in cases, businesses are required to adapt in just one day.
However, the county said in a news release that they would give businesses a two to three day grace period.
“Such change in business practice is not easily achieved overnight. We ask that our businesses make these changes right away, but we understand that it may take a matter of 2-3 days for universal compliance,” Borenstein said in a news release. “We intend to educate rather than come down with robust enforcement action over the next few days.”
Here’s how different business sectors will be affected:
- Places of worship must close indoor services.
- Movie theaters must close indoor services.
- Gyms and fitness centers must close indoor services.
- Restaurants must close indoor services.
- Museums, zoos and aquariums must close indoor services.
- Retail will have to decrease indoor capacity from 50% to 25%.
- Shopping centers (malls, destination centers, swap meets) will decrease indoor capacity from 50% to 25% capacity.
- Personal care services (hair and nail salons, tattoo parlors, barber shops) will be allowed to remain open with restrictions.
Many restaurants and businesses have already begun preparing to move to outdoor-only dining.
What does the purple tier mean for local schools?
How long would SLO County be in the purple?
How would SLO County re-enter the red tier?
San Luis Obispo County would need to meet red-tier requirements for two consecutive weeks before transitioning back to fewer restrictions.
To return to the red tier, the county would need to do the following:
- Have an adjusted case rate of fewer than 7 new cases per 100,000 people. In San Luis Obispo County, that would mean having fewer than around 19 new cases per day. The number of cases would be offset slightly depending on the number of coronavirus tests conducted per day.
- Maintain a positivity rate less than 8%. While the positivity rate has elevated slightly, staying below 8% has never been an issue in San Luis Obispo County.
- Maintain a positivity rate of less than 8% among people who live in the 12 SLO County census tracts that are considered to be in the lowest quartile of California’s Health Equity Index.
The county’s case rate has continued to rise, but Borenstein said the county can get back to red-tier levels if the right precautions, such as avoiding gatherings and wearing masks, are taken.
“We’ve done it before,” Borenstein said about meeting red-tier requirements. “We can do it again.”
Did SLO County have a chance to stay in the red tier?
According to Borentstein, the county had submitted an adjudication form to the California Department of Public Health to attempt to remain in the red tier because of special circumstances last week.
Borenstein said counties who believe their data is incorrect or that they have a unique situation — such as university students who will be leaving the area soon — can try to work with the state to remain within a certain tier.
San Luis Obispo County recently learned that “a medium-sized volume of test results” from a healthcare provider were not being entered into the state system, Borenstein said. The county said they believe the issue is now resolved, but have asked that the state re-calculate the number of tests being conducted locally.
The additional number of tests might help offset the case rate, according to the county.
Another special circumstance that is negatively affecting the county’s chances at remaining in the red tier are university students.
In the form submitted to the state, Borenstein said the county outlines how around 5,000 students who currently live at Cal Poly will be leaving the area Nov. 20. Their departure may have an effect on the community and number of cases present.
Because of the test result glitch and Cal Poly students, Borenstein said the county hopes that it will be able to “stave off the purple tier.” However, there is no guarantee.
Despite the adjudication form, the county was still placed back in the purple tier.
This story was updated Monday at 2 p.m. to reflect that SLO County has been placed in the purple tier. The original story was written prior to updated tier placements.
This story was originally published November 14, 2020 at 1:25 PM.
