Cal Poly swept Cal State Fullerton to keep NCAA Tournament hopes alive. What are its chances?

A Big West championship was no longer in the cards for the Cal Poly volleyball team after Hawaii clinched it outright on Friday. But a NCAA Tournament berth still very much was, and a win against Cal State Fullerton would only strengthen that cause.

On Saturday, the Mustangs defeated the Titans 19-25, 25-20, 25-11, 25-17 to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Cal Poly dropped the first set at home for the first time this season. But the rest of the match was all Cal Poly, extending the team’s winning streak at home to 32 straight — the nation’s longest.

Maia Dvoracek had a match-high 22 kills, Madilyn Mercer had nine kills and Avalon DeNecochea added seven kills along with 42 assists.

Hawaii clinched a playoff berth by winning the title for the first time 2016, leaving Cal Poly hoping to secure an at-large bid after securing an automatic bid for the past two seasons.

Cal Poly also won on Friday night, sweeping UC Irvine, 27-25, 25-15, 25-15.

The Mustangs (20-8, 12-3) were picked to repeat as Big West champions for the third straight season in the preseason coaches poll, but no one could have envisioned the injuries to Torrey Van Winden and Jamie Stivers, which sidelined players expected to make big contributions this season.

Even so, Cal Poly is still in the hunt for a playoff spot and reached 20 wins in a season for the third consecutive year — a testament to the talent on the roster and first-year coach Caroline Walters.

Dvoracek finished season with a conference-best 439 kills — 275 in the Big West — and 63 aces, also best in the conference.

DeNecochea ranks among the top three players in the conference in assists per set and Mika Dickson is among the top five in digs per set.

So what are the Mustang’s playoff chances?

Thirty-two of the 64 teams in the tournament will have earned an automatic bid, leaving 32 available at-large spots.

And there’s a good chance that three of those teams will be from the Big West.

At publication, Cal Poly was ranked 36th in RPI. UC Santa Barbara was 33rd and Hawaii was 12th. The average RPI for the top four teams that missed the tournament since 2010 ranges between 47th to 48th.

Performance against strength of schedule also plays a role in the process.

Cal Poly’s preseason schedule was a tough one, including facing then-Top 10 teams in Kentucky, Pittsburgh. They earned two wins against top-25 opponents, including a sweep of then-No. 19 Hawaii at home and No. 16 Utah at a neutral site, avenging a five-set loss to the Utes earlier in the season. The Mustangs were also swept by then-No. 22 Colorado State.

At publication, Pittsburgh was second in the AVCA Division I coaches poll, Colorado State was 11th, Kentucky 14th and Utah was 16th.

Selections will be announced Sunday, Dec. 1, at 5:30 p.m and the first two rounds of the tournament will take place from Dec. 5 to Dec. 7.

This story was originally published November 23, 2019 at 8:12 PM with the headline "Cal Poly swept Cal State Fullerton to keep NCAA Tournament hopes alive. What are its chances?."