Your Home Run Derby Picks Based on Metrics, Ballpark
The 2026 MLB Home Run Derby features a new format built to let the sluggers be sluggers. And it's in a park made for balls to fly over the fence.
So expect fireworks at the July 13 Home Run Derby at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.
This is a good, young hard-hitting Home Run Derby field. So how do we break it down with so many legit winners? Let's first take into consideration the park.
The format this year is all eight compete against each other in the opening round, then the final four are paired into semifinals, then finals. Each batter gets 20 swings – the countdown clock has been taken out, so batters can take as many pitches as they like. What's more, the round can't end on a home run. A batter gets hot late, and he could hit, theoretically, forever.
Here are some notes and a few picks for the Home Run Derby in Philly.
Home Run Derby Stadium Influence
Citizens Bank Park has been one of the most home-run-friendly parks in baseball nearly every year it's existed. So it won't take a muscle-bound behemoth to smash a fair share. So far in 2026, it's No. 8 in terms of park-adjusted Home Run Factor. Over the last three years, it's fifth.
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But here's the interesting part: For right-handed hitters, the park ranks 17th over a three-year mark for HRs. For left-handers, it's No. 1.
That benefits left-handers such as Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber, Yankees 1B Ben Rice, Phillies 1B Bryce Harper, White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami, and Royals RF Jac Caglianone.
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It's not helpful to the right-handers: Cardinals RF Jordan Walker, Red Sox 1B Willson Contreras, Rays 3B Junior Caminero.
Key Home Run Derby Statistics
We can pinpoint a few advanced metrics to determine who may be in the best spot for Home Run Derby 2026.
There's exit velocity to consider, as it proves they don't absolutely have to get a hold of it to get it over the fence. Average exit velocity is nice, but EV50 is a measurement of a players' Exit Velocity in their Top 50% hardest hits. Batters won't see any 90 mph sliders; these pitches are going to be hittable meatballs, so we can look at when the batters really square one up.
In addition, the average HR distance is more important to me than the longest HR.
When you look at those two stats, the field separates itself. Harper and Rice are out of consideration based on those measurements. One's a Phillies legend, and one's a Yankee; they're here for ratings.
Contreras isn't Top 25 in MLB in either category. Kyle Schwarber ranked 14th in the Top 50 EV, but the other four remaining guys are all in the Top 10, and he has the worst Average HR distance among the contenders, so I'm fading the home favorite.
2026 Home Run Derby Picks
So for me, there's a clear Top 4. It's Walker, Murakami, Caglianone and Caminero. Statistically, you could make a claim to any of them being the favorite.
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Now, with our Final Four, we can go back to the left-handed advantage, pushing Murakami and Caglianone to the top.
My Picks to Win: Murakami +600, Caglianone +700
Finalists: Murakami vs. Caglianone +1600
Semifinalists: Murakami -120, Caglianone -115, Walker -115, Caminero -160
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This story was originally published July 13, 2026 at 11:56 AM.