F1 Power Rankings: Who's the Favorite Heading Into the Belgian Grand Prix?

The 2026 Formula 1 season resumes at the iconic Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps, where Mercedes and Ferrari are set to renew their fight at the front after a dramatic run of races before the summer break. Kimi Antonelli's dominant run has put Mercedes firmly in control of both championships, but Ferrari's recent resurgence has shown the Silver Arrows are far from untouchable.

Charles Leclerc's victory at Silverstone injected fresh life into the title race, while Lewis Hamilton continues to build momentum in Ferrari colors. Red Bull, meanwhile, will hope Spa's high-speed layout helps reverse a difficult run of results.

With one of Formula 1's fastest, longest, and most unpredictable circuits awaiting the grid, here are the five drivers best positioned to fight for victory in Belgium.

5. George Russell (Mercedes)

George Russell enters Spa with plenty to prove. The Briton has shown excellent one-lap pace throughout 2026, but a frustrating run of races has prevented him from fully capitalizing on Mercedes' speed.

Silverstone added another disappointment after the late Safety Car controversy, and Russell now finds himself needing a statement performance to re-establish himself as Antonelli's closest challenger. Spa's combination of long straights and high-speed corners should provide another opportunity for Mercedes to showcase the pace that has made it the benchmark team in 2026.

If Russell can convert his qualifying speed into race pace, a return to the podium is well within reach.

4. Max Verstappen (Red Bull)

Writing off Max Verstappen at Spa is almost impossible.

The Belgian Grand Prix has consistently been one of the Dutchman's strongest events, with the circuit's high-speed nature complementing his aggressive driving style. Even when Red Bull has lacked outright pace, Verstappen has often extracted results few others could manage.

However, Red Bull arrives in Belgium with more questions than answers. Mechanical issues, inconsistent race pace, and missed opportunities have left the Milton Keynes outfit chasing Mercedes and Ferrari in recent rounds.

If Verstappen is to halt Mercedes' momentum anywhere this season, Spa looks like his best opportunity.

3. Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)

Lewis Hamilton's second season with Ferrari has gathered momentum over the past several races.

While teammate Charles Leclerc grabbed the headlines with victory at Silverstone, Hamilton has quietly delivered increasingly consistent performances and looks more comfortable with Ferrari's package than at any point earlier this season.

Few drivers understand Spa better than the seven-time world champion. His experience managing changing weather conditions, tire strategy, and Safety Car restarts could prove invaluable if Belgium delivers its trademark unpredictability.

If Ferrari continues its recent upward trajectory, Hamilton should once again find himself firmly in podium contention.

2. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)

Charles Leclerc arrives in Belgium carrying arguably the strongest momentum on the grid.

His emotional victory at Silverstone demonstrated Ferrari's ability to challenge Mercedes on outright pace. More importantly, Ferrari finally looked capable of sustaining race-winning performance across an entire Grand Prix weekend.

Leclerc has always excelled on high-speed circuits that reward commitment through fast corners, making Spa one of the venues where Ferrari could genuinely threaten Mercedes once again.

If Ferrari's recent pace carries over to Spa, Leclerc should once again be firmly in the fight for victory.

1. Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)

Until someone consistently beats him, Kimi Antonelli remains Formula 1's benchmark.

Despite seeing his five-race winning streak come to an end at Barcelona-Catalunya, the Mercedes rookie still leads the Drivers' Championship by a comfortable margin and continues to make remarkably few mistakes under pressure.

Spa presents a very different challenge from Barcelona-Catalunya, but Mercedes enters the weekend with perhaps the most complete package on the grid. Antonelli has repeatedly shown an ability to adapt quickly to changing conditions, a skill that could prove decisive if the Ardennes weather once again becomes a factor.

Ferrari may have closed the gap, but the driver everyone must beat heading into the Belgian Grand Prix remains Antonelli.

Who Enters Spa as the Favorite?

Ferrari's resurgence has made the championship fight considerably more competitive, while Red Bull will hope Spa's unique layout helps close the performance gap to the front. Yet Mercedes still possesses the benchmark package, and Antonelli continues to extract almost everything from it every weekend.

Spa-Francorchamps has a reputation for producing chaos, but momentum still favors Mercedes. Ferrari appears closer than it has been all season, yet until another driver consistently matches Antonelli across an entire race weekend, the championship leader remains the driver to beat in Belgium.

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This story was originally published July 13, 2026 at 11:22 AM.