Democrats are gaining momentum in SLO County. What does that mean for 2022?
A political earthquake rattled San Luis Obispo County last week, and it wasn’t just the presidential election.
Hardly noticed due to our national drama, local political tectonic plates have shifted unmistakably.
The tell: Democrat Joe Biden delivered a decisive beatdown of Republican Donald Trump in SLO County, by some 17.3-points. Local Republicans didn’t fare much better.
The drubbing is unambiguous: For context, Hillary Clinton beat Trump by 8% in 2016. Four years later, the Democrat doubled the margin against the GOP standard bearer in SLO County.
The victory could be even more lopsided when the final tally is certified Dec. 11.
It’s clear the county’s political ground is shifting: the greater the turnout, the better Democrats do.
Thus, when hyper-partisan local elected peacocks like Pastor Dan Dow, our holier-than-thou county prosecutor, strut and preen at extremist secessionist events, spouting “law-and-order” Trump-speak against local street protesters — after fabricating crimes against an uncooperative “victim” — they should know they’re pandering to a minority political base shedding more voters than gaining.
Democrats make up 37.4 percent of registered voters in SLO County, compared to 34.9 percent Republicans, 20.9 percent no party preference (NPP), the rest comprising minor parties. Dems in SLO County outnumber Republicans by 4,563 voters and growing.
The SLO County GOP’s hemorrhaging of voters — combined with Democratic and NPP registration gains — is making for more competitive up-ballot races than in past decades, resulting in blowout Democratic wins.
Congressman Salud Carbajal (D-Santa Barbara) defeated his Republican opponent, Andy Caldwell, by 11.6 percent in SLO County — some 21.4 percent when Santa Barbara County results are included.
Democrat John Laird of Santa Cruz, won the 17th Senate District seat of termed-out Sen. Bill Monning, snaring 54.6 percent of the SLO County vote, compared to 44.4 percent for Republican Vicki Norhden, a 10.2 percent margin. Districtwide (SLO County and parts of Monterey and Santa Cruz counties), Laird cruised past Norhden 66.7 to 33.3 percent, a 2-1 thumping.
One GOP bright spot: incumbent Jordan Cunningham of the 35th Assembly District may have salvaged his seat after the toughest race of his gilded political career by defeating Democrat Dawn Addis 53.3 to 46.7 percent districtwide (SLO County plus Santa Maria and Lompoc).
Addis came the closest any Dem ever has to taking this seat. That she cut the GOP’s traditional 10- to 15-point advantage in AD35 by half is impressive.
More noteworthy is the margin in SLO County, where Addis came within 5.4% of Cunningham, with some 25,000 votes outstanding. Technically, Addis could still pull out a victory after all votes are counted, but with a 11,900-vote gap districtwide, it’s unlikely.
In the city of SLO, two GOP-backed candidates wasted a lot of other people’s money running for the mayor’s job and one of two City Council seats. Despite a huge cash advantage, much fanfare and overwhelming campaign signage (mostly on commercial properties), they were swept by Democrats.
Mayor Heidi Harmon and council veterans Jan Marx and Andy Pease benefited from the 2-1 Dem voter advantage over the GOP in the city, but the trouncing was definitive.
Also of note was the “lock-‘em-up” Prop. 20, failing in SLO County 59-41. Though Dow sang his law-and-order hymn, county residents weren’t buying, decisively rejecting the prosecutor’s sermonizing.
Given this electoral muscle, local Democrats stand on solid ground to push back against the flag-waving minority who’ve anointed themselves Trumpist enforcers to intimidate non-believers and “encourage” pliant politicians like Dow to abuse their power, punish opponents and stifle dissent.
Given the political math, it’s only a matter of time before he and like-minded local electeds are held to account before all voters, not just their shrinking political base.
Dow, in particular, invites a serious challenger, given his obsequious upsucking to far-right extremists.
Dow, Sheriff Ian Parkinson and county Supervisor Lynn Compton are up for reelection in 2022. They own the radical right of SLO County — or vice versa — and they’ll answer for it.
Democrats in SLO County are a local reflection of national change. Their party flipped Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia from red to blue.
They elected the first Black woman vice president in American history. Biden’s 74 million-plus votes against an incumbent is more than any presidential candidate in history.
The ground is shifting in SLO County, too. Wise elected officials would take heed.
Tribune Columnist Tom Fulks serves on the San Luis Obispo County Democratic Central Committee.
This story was originally published November 8, 2020 at 5:30 AM.