This SLO County supervisor is almost certain to run again. Like it or not, he’ll win | Opinion

John Peschong has yet to formally announce his candidacy for a third term on the San Luis Obispo County Board of Supervisors, but he’s already launched a quiet campaign.

He’s been making lots of public appearances, and a 2024 Peschong for Supervisor committee is active.

He declined to confirm his candidacy when contacted by The Tribune Editorial Board but said he expects to make an announcement next week.

Peschong’s candidacy has been a matter of speculation for months.

For one thing, he announced years ago that he would serve only two terms as North County supervisor.

Plus, he’s a busy man. He’s a partner in a political consulting firm, Meridian Pacific Strategies, which has handled campaigns for some top Republican elected officials as well as for ballot measures.

And he’s had some heart health issues, though he told us last year that his heart is working “pretty well.”

During his own campaign last year, Supervisor Jimmy Paulding speculated that Peschong could retire before the end of his current term, which expires at the end of 2024 — an idea Peschong quickly quashed.

“Jimmy has a very active imagination,” he texted then.

Will Peschong face opposition?

So far, there’s been no mention of candidates who might step up to challenge Peschong in District 1.

That may be because district boundaries were up in the air until last week, when the liberal majority redrew the map as the result of a lawsuit settlement, largely reinstating the old boundaries in effect through the last decade.

But there’s an even bigger reason opponents could be leery, and it all comes down to math.

While Democrats have been making inroads in other parts of the county, the GOP remains at the top of the leaderboard in District 1, which includes Paso Robles and surrounding areas. As of April 24, there were nearly 5,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats in the district.

Even the most extreme Republicans have managed to get elected.

Look at the outcome of last week’s special election to fill a vacant school board seat.

Voters chose far-right candidate Kenney Enney — who accuses the teacher’s union of pushing a “social justice agenda,” spreads conspiracy theories and once wrote that he “reject(s)“ transgender people because “you can’t be something you’re not” — over well-qualified, moderate candidate Angela Hollander.

And it wasn’t especially close; Hollander lost by around 1,000 votes out of the 12,000 that were cast.

Bottom line: While John Peschong has been anathema to liberals — especially when he was part of the three-member, conservative majority that pushed through a far-right agenda — he has the deep respect of SLO County Republicans.

Here’s how District 3 is shaping up

Two other supervisor races will be on the ballot.

In District 3, Dawn Ortiz-Legg will have to run again, since her current term lasts only two years.

Like Peschong, she will be hard — if not impossible — to unseat, since she’s a Democrat running in a liberal district that includes the beach communities of Grover, Pismo, Avila and parts of San Luis Obispo.

In 2022, she easily beat her far-right opponent, Stacy Korsgaden, by capturing nearly 63% of the vote.

It’s possible that a more moderate challenger could make it a closer contest, but Ortiz-Legg is still looking like a shoo-in, which means there’s little to no chance that the current liberal majority — made up of Ortiz-Legg, Paulding and Bruce Gibson — will flip.

District 5 race

That leaves one race that should be competitive: District 5, which includes Cal Poly, Atascadero, Santa Margarita and surrounding areas.

Two members of the Atascadero City Council, Mayor Heather Moreno, a Republican, and Mayor Pro Tem Susan Funk, a Democrat, have announced their candidacies. (There had been speculation that incumbent Debbie Arnold might run for reelection, but she’s endorsing Moreno.)

While District 5 remains conservative, there is precedent for electing a liberal supervisor.

Jim Patterson was elected twice — in 2004 and 2008 — before losing to Arnold.

Also, the gap between Democrats and Republicans has been narrowing.

In the city of Atascadero, for instance, Republicans outnumber Democrats by 769 registered voters. In a small city that’s still a substantial lead, but it’s within the realm of possibility for a Democrat to win there.

It’s also possible that more candidates could enter the race, especially since there’s no incumbent running for reelection. That could change the dynamics of the race and force a November runoff in the event no candidate gets 50% of the vote.

In other words, stay tuned; the action is just beginning.

This story was originally published April 25, 2023 at 10:38 AM.