Batten down the hatches, SLO County: A rainstorm is on the way. Here’s when

From Sunday to Wednesday, a strong, 1,045-millibar, Eastern Pacific high positioned north of Hawaii will steer the storm track out of the Gulf of Alaska southward into California. This will bring much-needed rain along with significantly cooler temperatures to the Central Coast.

A cold front will move southeast across the Central Coast on Sunday, producing fresh to strong (19 to 31 mph) southerly winds, gentle rain and cooler conditions. Rainfall totals on Sunday are expected to range from 0.10 to 0.33 of an inch.

On Monday, the Central Coast can expect a second cold front, energized by exceptionally strong southwesterly winds aloft.

This will be followed by a 999-millibar, low-pressure system moving out of the Pacific Northwest along the California coastline, generating moderate gale-force to fresh gale-force (32 to 46 mph, with gusts up to 55 mph) southwesterly winds with periods of heavy rain and a chance of thunderstorms.

Winds of this strength from the southwest are uncommon along the Central Coast, making trees more vulnerable to broken limbs or falling, which could lead to power outages and road closures.

Rainfall totals on Monday should range between 1 and 2 inches.

High temperatures Monday will reach only the mid-50s in the inland valleys, including Paso Robles, and the upper 50s in coastal valleys such as San Luis Obispo and along the beaches.

On Tuesday, moderate gale-force to fresh gale-force (32 to 46 mph, with gusts to 55 mph) west-southwesterly winds will continue along with rain. Rainfall totals are expected to range from 0.75 to 1.25 inches.

An intense, fast-moving cold front will pass Wednesday morning, bringing southeasterly winds of 32 to 46 mph with gusts up to 60 mph, along with periods of heavy rain. Strong atmospheric instability will create a significant chance of thunderstorms capable of producing intense downbursts, hail and lightning.

Following the cold front, moderate gale-force to fresh gale-force (32 to 46 mph, with gusts to 55 mph) northwesterly winds will develop Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Rainfall totals on Wednesday should range from 0.75 to 1.25 inches. Snow levels will drop to between 3,000 and 3,500 feet, while daytime highs remain in the low 50s across the Central Coast.

Altogether, rainfall totals from Sunday through Wednesday should range between 2.6 and 4.8 inches.

High pressure will begin building over California late in the week, bringing moderate to fresh northeasterly (Santa Lucia) winds during the night and morning, shifting to northwesterly in the afternoon.

This pattern should favor mostly clear skies, aside from occasional low marine clouds along the coast late in the day and evening, and periods of dense ground fog developing overnight in inland and coastal valleys. Mornings will stay cool, followed by mild afternoon temperatures.

Looking ahead, predominantly dry conditions are expected to persist through the first week of March.

Surf report

A 5- to 7-foot northwesterly (285-degree, deep water) swell (with an 8- to 14-second period) will develop on Sunday.

Increasing southerly winds will generate 7- to 9-foot southerly (195-degree, shallow water) seas on Monday.

A 14- to 16-foot westerly (275-degree, deep water) sea and swell (with a 4- to 12-second period) will develop on Tuesday, decreasing to 10 to 12 feet by Wednesday.

A 7- to 9-foot northwesterly (285-degree, deep water) sea and swell (with a 7- to 11 -second period) will develop Thursday, decreasing to 3 to 5 feet on Friday into Saturday.

Seawater temperatures will range between 60 and 62 degrees through Tuesday, lowering to 55 to 57 degrees on Wednesday and will remain at this level through Friday.

On this date in weather history (Feb. 15)

1895: A big gulf snowstorm produced 6 inches of snow at Brownsville, Texas, and Mobile, Alabama, along with 15 inches at Galveston, Texas, and 24 inches at Rayne, Louisiana, in 24 hours. Snow fell at the mouth of the Mississippi River. Houston, Texas, received 22 inches of snow, and 9 inches blanketed New Orleans, Louisiana. (David Ludlum)

1982: A severe Atlantic cyclone capsized a drilling rig, killing 84 people. The storm also sank a Soviet freighter, killing 33 people. The cyclone produced 80 mph winds, which whipped the water into waves 50 feet tall. (David Ludlum)

This week’s temperatures

LOWS AND HIGHS, PASO ROBLES

SUNDAY: 44, 59

MONDAY: 45, 54

TUESDAY: 42, 52

WEDNESDAY: 38, 51

THURSDAY: 34, 56

FRIDAY: 35, 62

SATURDAY: 37, 67

SUNDAY: 38, 70

LOWS AND HIGHS, SAN LUIS OBISPO AND COASTAL VALLEYS

SUNDAY: 50, 63

MONDAY: 51, 59

TUESDAY: 47, 57

WEDNESDAY: 45, 52

THURSDAY: 42, 58

FRIDAY: 41, 68

SATURDAY: 43, 71

SUNDAY: 45, 76

John Lindsey is a retired PG&E marine meteorologist. Email him at JohnLindseyLosOsos@gmail.com or follow him on X @PGE_John.