Some parts of SLO County saw above-average rainfall this year. Will it continue this winter?

This rain season, spanning July 1 to June 30, 2025, has followed a classic La Niña pattern, where the storm track shifts northward.

As a result, areas on the northern Central Coast experienced average to above-average rainfall through the end of November, while locations further south saw below-average precipitation.

At Rocky Butte, rainfall has reached 8.4 inches, 150% of normal for this time of year. Paso Robles Airport has recorded 1.6 inches, precisely 100% of the average.

Moving south, San Luis Obispo Airport has received 2.1 inches, 83% of its usual 2.5 inches by the end of November. Further south, Santa Maria Airport has measured 1.2 inches, just 67% of its average. The Santa Barbara Airport, meanwhile, has recorded only 0.5 inches, a mere 24% of the typical November total.

Looking ahead, long-range forecasts indicate a dry start to December across much of Central California, further lowering rainfall percentages.

Over the next two weeks, we’ll experience a stable WYSIWYG (what you see is what you get) weather pattern. This calm spell is driven by a high-pressure system to the north, which will keep the storm track confined to the Pacific Northwest, leaving our region dry.

During the nights and mornings, Santa Lucia winds (northeasterly) will prevent the marine layer from moving inland, keeping it offshore. Meanwhile, a weak low-pressure system at 1,012 millibars, situated midway between Central California and Hawaii, will bring varying amounts of mid- to high-level clouds over San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties through Sunday.

Skies are expected to clear significantly from Monday through the following Saturday.

Overnight temperatures will dip into the upper 30s to low 40s in inland valleys like Paso Robles, and the upper 40s to low 50s in coastal valleys such as San Luis Obispo and along the beaches. Daytime highs will range from the mid-60s to low 70s across the Central Coast.

Surf report

Extraordinarily low swell conditions (1 to 3 feet) will continue through Sunday morning.

A 4- to 6-foot west-northwesterly (280-degree deep-water) swell (with an 18- to 20- second period) will arrive along our coastline on Sunday afternoon and remain at this height but with a gradually shorter period through Tuesday.

A 3- to 5-foot west-northwesterly (280-degree deep-water) swell (with a 7- to 12-second period) is expected on Wednesday, increasing to 4- to 6-feet (with a 7- to 14-second period) on Thursday through next Saturday.

Combined with this west-northwesterly swell will be a 1- to 3-foot southern hemisphere (220-degree deep-water) swell (with a 16- to 18-second period) Wednesday into next Saturday.

Seawater temperatures

Surface seawater temperatures will range between 55 and 57 degrees through Tuesday, warming to 56 to 59 degrees on Wednesday through next Saturday.

On this date in Weather History (Dec. 1):

1831: The coldest December of record in the northeastern United States commenced. Temperatures in New York City averaged 22 degrees, with just four days above freezing, and at Burlington, Vermont, the temperature never did get above freezing. The Erie Canal was closed the first day of December, and remained closed the entire month. (David Ludlum)

2007: A cold but dry weather system passed over Northern California overnight bringing chilly temperatures and mostly sunny weather to our area. A brisk 14 degrees was reported at Windrose Farm in the morning along with a low of 21.9 degrees at Creston.

2011: A steep 15-millibar pressure differential between San Francisco and Los Angeles produced very strong northerly winds throughout California today. Laural Mountain at 4,390 feet in Kern County reported sustained winds of 68-mph with gust to 89-mph out of the north in the morning. Sierra Crest near the Squaw Valley Summit with an elevation of 8,700 feet reported sustained winds of 62 mph with gusts to 93 mph. A wind gust of 97 mph was recorded at the 4,120 foot Whitaker Peak in Los Angeles County the night before. Closer to home, the Condor Lookout weather station located at an elevation of 3,190 feet on Hi Mountain, in the Los Padres National Forest east of San Luis Obispo reported sustained winds of 55 mph with gusts to 63 mph.

This week’s temperatures

LOWS AND HIGHS, PASO ROBLES

LOWS AND HIGHS, SAN LUIS OBISPO AND COASTAL VALLEYS

John Lindsey is a retired PG&E marine meteorologist. Email him at JohnLindseyLosOsos@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter @PGE_John.