3 days of rain are on the way as El Niño weather hits Central Coast

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the equatorial sea surface temperatures are well above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, creating an El Niño pattern that’s anticipated to continue through the spring.

Now, the atmosphere seems to be responding to this El Niño condition, with the storm track moving further southward into Central and Southern California.

A series of storms is forecast to develop off the Northern and Central California coastline, bringing three days of rain this week and more the week after.

These low-pressure systems will begin by producing gentle to moderate (8 to 18 mph) southerly winds and increasing clouds on Monday into Tuesday.

On Wednesday, one of the storm systems is predicted to intensify just a few hundred miles to the west of the Central Coast due to the strong upper-level winds.

The associated cold front is forecast to produce strong to gale-force (25 to 38 mph) southerly winds and rain by Wednesday night into Thursday.

The center of this storm will gradually move eastward and weaken as it passes over San Luis Obispo County on Friday with additional strong southerly winds and rain.

The total amount of precipitation is expected to range between 0.75 and 1.5 inches throughout the Central Coast, with the heaviest rainfall occurring on Thursday.

Snow levels are expected to range between 5,000 and 7,000 feet Thursday into Friday.

Fresh to strong (19 to 31 mph) northwesterly winds and dry weather will return on Saturday into next Sunday. However, pockets of dense ground fog, especially in the inland valleys, could develop during the night and morning.

A colder storm is expected to produce rain on Nov. 21 through 23, with snow levels dropping below 5,000 feet. This active November weather pattern is forecast to continue into the end of the month.

In the meantime, moderate to fresh (13 to 24 mph) Santa Lucia (northeasterly) winds will produce primarily clear and dry skies with a cold morning and a mild afternoon on Sunday.

The inland valleys (Paso Robles) and Coastal Valleys (San Luis Obispo) will warm to the high 70s, while the beaches will reach the 60s. Sunday morning’s lows are expected to drop to the mid-30s in the North County.

Surf report

A 5- to 7-foot northwesterly (300-degree, deep-water) swell (with a 13- to 15-second period) is forecast along our coastline on Sunday into Wednesday morning.

Strong to gale-force (25 to 38 mph) southerly winds along the central California coastline will generate 4- to 6-foot southerly (180-degree, shallow-water) seas on Thursday, becoming a 5- to 7-foot southwesterly (250-degree, deep-water) sea and swell (with a 5- to 12-second period) on Friday. A 5- to 7-foot westerly (275-degree, deep-water) swell (with an 8- to 14-second period) is forecast along our coastline on Saturday into next Sunday.

Seawater temperatures will range between 57 and 59 degrees through Sunday, warming to 58 to 60 degrees on Monday through Saturday.

This week’s temperatures

LOWS AND HIGHS, PASO ROBLES

LOWS AND HIGHS, SAN LUIS OBISPO AND COASTAL VALLEYS

John Lindsey is a retired PG&E marine meteorologist. Email him at JohnLindseyLosOsos@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter @PGE_John.

This story was originally published November 12, 2023 at 5:00 AM.