Dry, cool weather with strong winds in store for first week of April in SLO County

The Global Forecast System (GFS) model run suggests that dry weather will continue until April 17.

It has been a long, long time since we had such a parched forecast. However, it’s important to remember that weather prediction is an inherently uncertain and complex science. There is always a degree of uncertainty associated with any prediction involving our atmosphere.

Gentle to moderate (8 to 18 mph) Santa Lucia (northeasterly/offshore) winds will produce clear skies in the coastal regions and pockets of fog in the inland valleys Sunday morning. The inland valleys (Paso Robles) will drop to the low-40s, while the coastal valleys (San Luis Obispo) will be in the mid-40s on Sunday morning. Highs will reach the mid-60s throughout the Central Coast as strong to gale-force (25 to 38 mph) northwesterly winds develop along the coastline on Sunday afternoon.

A dry cold front will move through the Central Coast on Sunday night into Monday morning with partly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures. In the wake of this departing cold front, moderate gale-force to fresh gale-force (32 to 46 mph with gusts to 50 mph) northwesterly winds will develop on Monday afternoon into Tuesday, decreasing to strong to gale-force (25 to 38 mph) levels on Wednesday. These winds will create mostly clear skies. Morning low temperatures will drop to the low to mid-30 in the wind-sheltered inland and coastal valleys on Tuesday and Wednesday.

A warming trend will develop on Thursday through Saturday as high pressure builds over the Central Coast, producing morning Santa Lucia (northeasterly) winds, clear skies, and warmer temperatures, potentially reaching the 70s by Friday into Saturday.

Surf report

A 4- to 6-foot northwesterly (310-degree, deep-water) sea and swell (with a 5- to 14-second period) is expected along our coastline on Sunday morning, increasing to 6- to 8-feet by Sunday afternoon.

Increasing northwesterly winds along the California coastline will generate 11- to 13-foot northwesterly (310-degree, shallow-water) seas (with a 4- to 7-second period) on Monday, decreasing to 7- to 9-feet on Tuesday.

A 5- to 7-foot northwesterly (300-degree, deep-water) sea and swell (with a 5- to 11-second period) is expected along our coastline on Wednesday, decreasing to 4- to 6-feet on Thursday into Saturday.

Seawater temperatures will range between 54 and 56 degrees through Sunday, decreasing to 50 to 52 degrees on Monday through Saturday.

This week’s temperatures

LOWS AND HIGHS, PASO ROBLES

LOWS AND HIGHS, SAN LUIS OBISPO AND COASTAL VALLEYS

John Lindsey is a retired PG&E marine meteorologist. Email him at JohnLindseyLosOsos@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter @PGE_John.