More gusty winds and rain this week for SLO County

Like most of the first half of March, a stormy pattern will continue with periods of gusty winds and rain persisting into this first week of spring.

Most Central Coast locations are at between 175 and 200 percent of average rainfall, with a few rain gauges above 200 percent of normal. Consequently, as of Saturday, the Salinas Reservoir was at 104 percent capacity. Lopez Lake was at 94 percent, while Whale Rock reservoir was 100 percent capacity. Lake San Antonio has increased to 54 percent, and Lake Nacimiento was at 88 percent capacity. Currently, water is being released from Nacimiento for flood control. Lake Lopez is expected to reach 100 percent capacity as early as Monday or Tuesday and spill for the first time in a quarter of a century.

A 1,004 millibar low-pressure system and associated warm and cold fronts will create strong to gale-force (25 to 38 mph) southerly winds, mostly cloudy skies, and rain. Steady rain is forecast on Sunday morning, turning to scattered rain showers on Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. High temperatures will reach the mid to high-50s on Sunday and Monday throughout the Central Coast. Total rainfall amounts are expected to range between 0.33 and 0.66 of an inch, with snow levels at 5,500 feet.

A break in the rain will develop Monday afternoon and night, the first day of spring.

Strong to gale-force (25 to 38 mph with gusts to 45 mph) southerly winds and moderate to heavy rain will develop on Tuesday into Wednesday as a 999 millibar storm moves slowly through the Central Coast. This low-pressure system should generate between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain, with snow levels lowering to 4,000 feet.

As if on cue at the start of spring, strong to gale-force (25 to 38 mph) northwesterly winds will develop on Wednesday into Thursday, further increasing to moderate gale-force to fresh gale-force (32 to 46 mph) levels on Friday into Saturday. Combined with the winds, scattered rain showers are forecast on Friday into Saturday.

Dry weather is expected the following week.

Surf report

Increasing southerly winds along the California coastline will generate 4- to 6-foot southerly (180-degree, shallow-water) seas (with a 3- to 7-second period) on Sunday into Monday, building to 8- to 10-feet on Tuesday.

A 9- to 11-foot westerly (270-degree, deep-water) swell (with an 8- to 14-second period) is expected along our coastline on Wednesday, decreasing to 7- to 9-feet with the same period on Thursday into Friday. This northwesterly sea swell will build to 13- to 15-feet on Saturday.

Seawater temperatures will range between 55 and 57 degrees through Thursday, decreasing to 50 to 52 degrees on Friday into Saturday.

This week’s temperatures

LOWS AND HIGHS, PASO ROBLES

LOWS AND HIGHS, SAN LUIS OBISPO AND COASTAL VALLEYS

John Lindsey is a retired PG&E marine meteorologist. Email him at JohnLindseyLosOsos@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter @PGE_John.