SLO County weather forecast: Gusty winds and dry skies through Thanksgiving weekend

This week will resemble last week’s weather as a ridge of high pressure remains firmly anchored over the Great Basin.

This area of high pressure will create gusty Santa Lucia (northeasterly) winds during the night and morning, cold and crisp mornings, mild afternoons, and dry conditions through the Thanksgiving Day weekend.

However, a significant change in the weather pattern could develop at the end of November into the first part of December.

A 1,038-millibar area of high pressure over the Great Basin will produce moderate to fresh (13 to 24 mph) and, at times, gusty Santa Lucia winds during the night and morning, shifting out of the northwest during the afternoon. These winds will keep the marine layer out to sea.

Overnight lows will drop to the low 30s in the North County and high 30s in the coastal regions, daytime highs will range from the low70s at the beaches and the coastal valleys (San Luis Obispo), and the high 60s in the inland valleys (Paso Robles).

This condition will produce a significant Santa Ana wind event in Southern California, especially along Highway 101 in Ventura County.

Daytime temperatures will gradually warm through Thanksgiving Day, with most Central Coast locations reaching the low to mid-70s under mostly clear and dry skies. Persistent northwesterly (onshore) winds next Sunday, Nov 27, could allow the marine layer with pockets of fog and mist to redevelop along the coastline, moving inland during the overnight.

The area of high pressure over the Great Basin is expected to weaken and move eastward.

At the same time, the storm track across the Pacific Ocean is forecast to take a more southward path into California on Nov. 28 and 29 with the promise of southerly winds and light to gentle rain.

Initialized with multiple atmospheric and oceanic variables, the ensemble packages that typically produce a broad range of possible weather outcomes suggest a chance of more rain by the first week of December.

Remember, these are long-range forecasts and will probably change.

Surf report

A 4- to 6-foot northwesterly (295-degree, deep-water) swell (with a 7- to 12-second period) will remain at this level through Sunday, decreasing to 3 to 5 feet (with an 8- to 14-second period) on Monday into Tuesday.

A 5- to 7-foot northwesterly (300-degree, deep-water) swell (with a 7- to 17-second period) will arrive along our coastline on Wednesday and remain at this height but with a gradually shorter period through Friday.

Seawater temperatures will range between 53 and 55 degrees through Tuesday, increasing to 54 to 57 degrees on Wednesday into Friday.

This week’s temperatures

LOWS AND HIGHS, PASO ROBLES

LOWS AND HIGHS, SAN LUIS OBISPO AND COASTAL VALLEYS

This story was originally published November 20, 2022 at 5:30 AM.