Will SLO County Board of Supervisors have a liberal majority? It depends on District 2
All eyes are on the District 2 Board of Supervisors race as it moves closer to a runoff in the November election.
On Wednesday, incumbent Supervisor Bruce Gibson dropped below 50% of the vote, which is the threshold for sending him and the second place vote-getter to a head-to-head matchup.
If the other two district races hold as they are now, a runoff in District 2 would decide whether a new liberal majority takes control of the board — or conservatives maintain their advantage.
Right now, the Board has a conservative majority with three Republicans and two Democrats. The Democratic candidates are well ahead of their conservative challengers in Districts 3 and 4, and if Gibson won District 2 the Board would have a liberal majority for the first time in eight years.
“The consequence of the Second District race is a big deal, and it’s about what kind of government this county is going to have,” Gibson said.
If Gibson fails to win 50% of the vote now, however, he’ll battle with a Republican opponent for the seat in the general election. The new District 2 shifted inland to include more conservative areas like Atascadero and San Miguel, giving the Republican candidate an edge in voter registration.
The Clerk-Recorder’s Office will resume ballot counting on Tuesday.
Cal Poly political science professor Michael Latner said the election results so far suggest that Democrats showed up to the polls more than their Republican neighbors.
“It does appear that more progressive voters were mobilized in this election cycle,” Latner said.
Partisan decisions by the board majority, like selecting a new district map that’s now being challenged in court on accusations of gerrymandering, may have motivated progressives to vote, he said.
What would a runoff look like in District 2?
Incumbent Bruce Gibson kicked off the count with a 445-point election night lead over his three opponents, taking 52.9% of the vote. His lead narrowed over the past two weeks and then disappeared entirely last Friday when his challengers tallied 526 more votes than him.
On Wednesday, Gibson trailed by another 207 votes, leaving him with 49.2% of the vote — below the 50% mark that would send the race to the general election.
With 17,657 ballots left to count countywide, Cal Poly political science professor Michael Latner said it’s too soon to tell if the District 2 race will advance to a runoff.
“It’s likely, but it’s only a couple hundred votes between having to go to a runoff or not,” Latner said. “I would hold tight on that race.”
If District 2 does go to a runoff, Gibson will likely compete with retired orthopedic surgeon Bruce Jones or business owner Geoff Auslen.
As of Wednesday, Jones was the District 2 runner-up with 18.6% of the vote, and Auslen followed close behind with 17.1%. Military veteran John Whitworth brought up the rear with 14.9% of the vote.
Gibson said that it’s too soon to tell how the primary will shake out, but he feels prepared for the general election if that’s where the District 2 race lands.
“I’m ready to go. I’m ready to campaign hard, and I think we’ll be successful,” Gibson told The Tribune on Thursday.
Jones noted that he and Auslen are separated by just 226 votes, so either of them could end up in the runoff.
“I think it’s more likely that I’ll be running against Gibson in November, but we’ll have to wait and see the rest of the count,” Jones told The Tribune.
Auslen agreed that it’s too soon to tell who will challenge Gibson in the runoff.
“You don’t know if your pockets of votes have been counted yet,” Auslen said. “I’m hopeful. I haven’t given up.”
In the primary, three conservative candidates competed with Gibson.
In the general election, Gibson would challenge one Republican candidate, creating a “united front” and giving conservatives a better shot at winning, Auslen said. He thinks his personal ties to the district give him an edge over Gibson.
“I think I’m the guy that can beat him just because of my longevity in the county,” Auslen said.
Because District 2 has new boundaries, it’s hard to predict how the runoff will look, Latner said.
Voter turnout in primary elections tend to be lower and limited to “party loyalists” and older voters, so “primaries are not that representative of the electorate as a whole,” Latner said. He said Gibson could succeed in a runoff because he appeals to moderate voters who are more likely to show up in the general election.
Likewise, the runoff will look different depending on who Gibson’s challenger is.
Latner called Jones a “hardcore conservative” who has “voiced conspiratorial theories about election fraud.” If Jones and Gibson compete in the general election, Gibson will likely pick up more moderate voters and could beat Jones, Latner said.
Auslen, however, is seen as a more moderate Republican than Jones, so he could take moderate voters away from Gibson in November, Latner said.
“I think there are a different set of dynamics in play if Auslen ends up being the nominee,” Latner said. “It’s certainly going to be a tough race no matter what.”
Democrats lead in Districts 3 and 4
Meanwhile, in the other two district races, both Dawn Ortiz-Legg and Jimmy Paulding still hold sizable leads.
The District 3 race is effectively over, with Ortiz-Legg repeatedly building on an advantage that now stands at 4,783 votes.
The breakdown now has her with 64.5% of the vote to Stacy Karsgaden’s 32.3% and Arnold Ruiz’s 3.1%.
Ortiz-Legg was originally appointed to the seat by Gov. Gavin Newsom when Adam Hill died during his term. She said it’s gratifying to win the seat in an election, and she’s grateful to the voters.
“I really feel that people want to see a thoughtful, moderate type of leadership. So that’s kind of my brand,” Ortiz-Legg told The Tribune the day after the election. “It’s very welcomed in these divisive times.”
In District 4, Arroyo Grande City Councilman Jimmy Paulding remains on track to win, even though the margin has narrowed of late.
After opening a lead of 1,832 votes on June 14, Paulding has given back some of that edge in each of the last two tallies. His lead now stands at 1,580 votes, giving him 55.1% to Lynn Compton’s 45%, after the incumbent trimmed 195 votes off Paulding’s advantage.
Latner said he thinks it would be “virtually impossible” for Compton to win enough votes to beat Paulding at this point.
“I still feel optimistic,” Paulding told The Tribune on Thursday. “It’s kind of like waiting on pins and needles for the final results, but the lead is holding although it’s narrowing, so definitely remaining confident.”
