U.S. Rep. Salud Carbajal has the cash, but Republican challenger is gaining momentum
A fundraising push over the past several months saw far more money flow to the campaign of a longtime Santa Maria conservative radio host than the Central Coast’s two-term representative for its 24th Congressional District.
But the more than a half-million dollars in campaign cash raised by Andy Caldwell since he announced he was challenging Democratic U.S. Rep. Salud Carbajal still leaves the outspoken conservative with only about 35% of the incumbent’s nearly $1.5 million he had on hand as of Feb. 12.
Assuming Caldwell’s strong local fundraising continues, the figures so far show much less financial support from national political organizations and corporate dollars for Caldwell compared to the local and national Republican Party’s chosen candidate in the last two election cycles.
As one Cal Poly political science associate professor noted, despite Caldwell’s strong grassroots showing, the national Republican Party and the corporate dollars that follows its preferences are so far “not willing to throw good money after bad” to win over a district with a relatively safe incumbent.
In their final campaign disclosures before the March 3 primary election released Thursday, Carbajal remains the financial frontrunner by a long shot, having raised $1,274,967 over this election cycle, with roughly $511,834 of that raised since July 2019, and with about 66% of those contributions coming from individual residents and businesses within the district.
Caldwell’s total fundraising of $518,101, on the other hand, began in earnest in September 2019 and now includes a far greater portion of individual donors from within the district — 95% — which encompasses San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties, as well as a slice of northern Ventura County.
A third candidate, Independent Kenneth Young, a Santa Barbara civil engineer, has only filed a statement of candidacy but has not yet raised any money requiring the filing of financial reports, his campaign spokesman, Ron Atwood, said Friday.
Carbajal, a former Santa Barbara County supervisor, has represented the district in Congress since 2017 and is now seeking a third term.
Caldwell, founder of the nonprofit conservative activist group Coalition of Labor, Agriculture, and Business of Santa Barbara County, has hosted a talk show on 1440-AM radio for over 25 years, but has never before run as a candidate for political office.
The top two candidates in the March primary will appear on the general election ballot in November. That means it’s likely to be a long summer of fundraising in a district that attracted big money and national attention in 2016, but far less in 2018.
Rep. Carbajal has comfortable fundraising lead
When the election cycle began in January 2019, Carbajal had $734,490 on hand and has consistently reported donations in the tens of thousands of dollars every few months since.
As of the end of the most recent reporting period Feb. 12, Carbajal had raised a total of $1,274,967 and spent a total of $636,825 in campaign funds. He went into the current reporting period with $1,482,109.
According to a Tribune review of his financial disclosures, Carbajal’s campaign since July has taken in 561 separate donations, 33% of which came from outside of the district. That includes most of Carbajal’s 129 donations from various political and corporate PACs, which accounted for $186,695, or roughly 36% of his total fundraising since July.
He’s received notable individual contributions from Laura Capps, daughter of longtime Central Coast Congresswoman Lois Capps, as well as businessman and philanthropist Michael Armand Hammer, various prominent Democratic Party leaders, and former Steppenwolf frontman John Kay.
Carbajal’s corporate donors are many and from varied industries.
Since July 2019, he’s accepted money from PACs representing labor unions such as American Postal Workers and the AFL-CIO; retailers such as Amazon and Walmart; telecommunications industry giants such as AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon, and Sprint; defense industry titans Lockheed Martin and Raytheon; energy industry companies Sempra Energy, Exelon, and Edison International; bankers such as Wells Fargo and the Credit Union Association; and political organizations such as Everytown For Gun Safety and VoteVets, Inc.
Challenger Andy Caldwell gains momentum
Unlike Carbajal, 95% of Caldwell’s financial support came from individual donors and small businesses from within the district, a majority of which are from Santa Barbara County.
After filing for office in August, Caldwell started relatively slow, attracting $67,303 in his first two months, then amassing a whopping $351,074 in the last three months of 2019. He finished off the last filing period with a strong $99,724 in donations for a total of $518,102 in funds since he announced candidacy.
By comparison, Carbajal raised just $40,211 in the last 42-day reporting period.
Caldwell has spent roughly $266,512 this election cycle, and had approximately $145,836 on hand as of Feb. 12.
A list of Caldwell’s contributors reads like a who’s who of prominent conservatives and business people in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties: COLAB officers Mark Tiexiera and Randy Fox; Santa Barbara County Supervisor Steve Lavagnino; San Luis Obispo County Supervisor Debbie Arnold and supervisor candidate Stacy Korsgaden; Templeton businessman William Ostini; New Times conservative columnist Al Fonzi; Spencer’s Market owner John Spencer and Matt Kokkonen, frequent Republican candidate for office.
Caldwell has accepted money from just one PAC so far.
He took $2,500 from the California Independent Petroleum Association, which recently poured $10,000 into the controversial Friends of Veterans PAC. The group has raised $60,000 to defeat Arnold challenger Ellen Beraud in the San Luis Obispo County supervisors race.
Republican Party wants to ‘stop the bleeding’
The Republican Party chapters in San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties had previously endorsed two-time candidate Justin Fareed, deemed by the party to be a “young gun” and rising star in the party.
Despite raising more than $3 million over his two runs, Fareed lost to Carbajal by almost seven points in 2016 and by more than 17 points in 2018.
Caldwell, who entered the House race somewhat late in August 2019, has raised less than Fareed had near his primary election. And the radio host is without many of the large corporate donors, and state and national Republican Party support that Fareed eventually enjoyed.
All this shows that the national GOP and large corporate donors have less faith in the district’s ability to flip Republican this time around, Michael Latner, associate professor of political science at Cal Poly, said by phone Friday.
“(Caldwell’s) been successful in tapping into the traditional Republican voter base, but (his fundraising) also tells you it’s a very different climate from the last two elections in which Justin Fareed was receiving a lot of money from outside the district,” Latner said.
Latner said that, nationally, the GOP is prioritizing holding on to its House seats rather than plunge money into districts where voter demographics are less favorable and a Democratic Party incumbent is more entrenched.
“They’re trying to stop the bleeding,” he said.
But Latner added that more large donors will inevitably be attracted to Caldwell — should he have a good showing in the primary — as the general election nears.
Latner said that Carbajal would be wise to work to attract individual donations from residents within the district in order to show he’s still a viable candidate.
This story was originally published February 21, 2020 at 3:04 PM.
