Democrats now outnumber Republicans in SLO County’s Assembly district. Why it matters
For the first time since the district was redrawn eight years ago, registered voters in the Democratic Party now outnumber Republicans in the California State Assembly’s District 35, once considered relatively safe district for GOP candidates.
That could mean a closer race this time around for two-term Republican Assemblyman Jordan Cunningham and his Democratic challenger, Morro Bay councilwoman Dawn Addis, who are expected to face off in the election in November.
The 35th Assembly District encompasses all of San Luis Obispo County and northern Santa Barbara County, and has been represented by Cunningham since 2016.
Cunningham cruised to easy victories in the past two elections. The former San Luis Obispo County prosecutor defeated Democrat Dawn Ortiz-Legg 54.7% to 45.3% in 2016, and in 2018, beat Democrat Bill Ostrander 55.9% to 44.1%, according to Secretary of State figures.
With two candidates running for the 35th Assembly District in the primary presidential election March 3, each will automatically advance to the Nov. 3 presidential election unless a write-in candidate gathers more votes. Both will appear on the primary ballot.
The district has been represented by a Republican since the Citizens Redistricting Commission redrew its boundaries in 2012.
But Republican voter registration has been on a steady decline as both Democrat and No Party Preference voters increased, corresponding with an overall statewide trend. In the last eight years, No Party Preference voters have grown by roughly 1.8 million voters.
When Democrats made up 43.6% of the state’s registered voters and Republicans made up 30.4% in January 2012, No Party Preference voters comprised 21.2% of the electorate, or about 3.5 million voters, according to state data.
But in October 2019, Democrats remained a majority with 44.1% of voters, but Republican registration fell significantly to 23.6%. No Party Preference voters, at the same time, had shot up to 26.7%, or nearly 5.3 million voters.
Locally, in November 2012, when San Luis Obispo County Republican Katcho Achadjian won his second term over Democrat Gerry Manata 62.7% to 38.7%, registered Republicans held a wide advantage with 40.2% of registered voters.
Democrats at the time made up 34.1% and No Party Preference voters made up 19.1% of the district’s registered voters, according to state data.
Two years later, when Achadjian won his third and final term against current San Luis Obispo Mayor Heidi Harmon 62.7% to 37.3%, Republicans’ total number shrunk but still overwhelmed Democrats with 38.8% percent of the district’s voters. Democrats in September 2014 made up 33.8% of the electorate and No Party Preference voters increased to 21.5%.
In Cunningham’s first term, demographics hadn’t changed much, with Republicans in the district still making up 38.5%, with Democrats decreasing slightly to 33.2% and No Party Preference remaining at 21.1% of registered voters.
When elected to his second term, the number of registered Democrats again remained mostly the same but Republican registration dropped to 36.4% and No Party Preference voters inched to 22.1%.
In February 2019, the roles flipped. Democrats, for the first time, surpassed Republicans with 34.49% of voters while Republican registration dipped to 33.74% and No Party Preference voters surged to 25.8%.
The most recent count published by the state, taken in October 2019, showed Democrats with the largest percentage of registered voters with 35.27% over Republicans’ 33.57%.
No Party Preference voters actually dipped slightly in those eight months, to 24.58%.
On Wednesday, Addis’ campaign highlighted the shifting demographics in a mass email to supporters.
Update, 11:45 a.m., Jan. 31, 2020: This story has been updated to include statewide party registration data.
This story was originally published January 31, 2020 at 5:15 AM.
