Lula leads Senator Bolsonaro in Brazil presidential run-off, poll shows

SAO PAULO - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva would win a potential second-round run-off vote in the October presidential elections against opposition Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed on Wednesday.

Lula would receive 48.8% of votes in a second run-off, compared with 42.3% for Flavio Bolsonaro, son of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, the poll showed.

In an April survey, the two candidates were tied at 48%.

In a first-round run-off scenario Lula would lead with 46.3% of the votes, followed by Flavio Bolsonaro with 36.6%, Renan Santos at 7.8%, Ronaldo Caiado at 2.9%, and Romeu Zema at 2.0%, the poll found.

The AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll surveyed 4,999 people between June 26 and 30; the poll has a margin of error of one percentage point in either direction.

(Reporting by Andre Romani; Editing by Michael Perry)

Copyright Reuters or USA Today Network via Reuters Connect.

This story was originally published July 1, 2026 at 3:22 AM.