Where can I buy the cheapest turkey? A guide to SLO County Thanksgiving grocery prices
You might feel stuffed after Thanksgiving dinner this year — but your wallet likely won’t.
At an average national cost of just under $6 per person, a traditional 10-person Thanksgiving dinner will be a bit more expensive in 2021 than in years past, experts say.
Never fear: The Tribune is here to help you get the most bang for your buck as you shop for your holiday meal.
We looked at prices at 12 local grocery stores, and found the average cost of a very simple Thanksgiving meal with all the fixings was just over $100.
Prices varied widely across the county, however, so if you want to get the best deals, you might consider shopping someplace other than your usual spot.
Plus, some businesses may offer a discount at the register if you spent a certain amount of money, so keep an eye out for store-specific deals.
Before we delve into our guide, let’s look at why Thanksgiving is costing more this year.
Why is Thanksgiving getting more expensive?
Supply chain issues have been blamed for a lot in recent months — from unstocked store shelves and a lack of cars in dealership lots to a shortage of hazelnut syrup for your Starbucks coffee.
Now the supply chain, paired with a heavy dose of inflation and confusing projections for global food demand during the coronavirus pandemic, is affecting your Thanksgiving meals.
The American Farm Bureau Federation estimates that this year’s holiday dinners will cost roughly 14% more across the United States than in 2020, when the average price ($46.90) dipped due to COVID-19 restrictions.
In 2021, $53.31 will buy a meal consisting of turkey, vegetables, pumpkin pie and a few other traditional staples, according to the Farm Bureau. That’s up 9% from 2019, when the average cost of a Thanksgiving meal was $48.91.
Put another way, this year’s Thanksgiving meal will be the most expensive since the Farm Bureau began measuring average costs in 1947.
“That’s obviously a sizable increase,” said Veronica Nigh, a senior economist with the Farm Bureau. “Overall inflation in the U.S. economy at over 6.2% is certainly adding to the cost of all products in the U.S. economy — not just food products. That’s certainly something that’s contributing to this increase, but there are other factors, equally important factors, in play as well.”
Nigh said changes in the supply chain and consumer behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic were major contributors to food price increases this year.
One of the main drivers of this year’s dinner cost hike is its centerpiece: the turkey, which increased in price by about 24%, Nigh said.
Reasons for that cost increase could include supply issues, but grocery stores could also be waiting to put out their promotional turkey deals until much closer to Thanksgiving, she said.
That’s good news for late shoppers, who are now much more likely to get a good deal on a bird this week than last week, she added.
Here’s more good news: The Farm Bureau expects that U.S. food prices will likely return more to normal in the coming months as the supply chain stabilizes and pandemic recovery continues.
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What are SLO County grocery prices like?
The Farm Bureau computes its averages based on survey data and random shopping for a period of two weeks in late October to early November, but The Tribune felt it would be more helpful to examine local prices to see how they compare across stores and cities.
We looked at prices at 12 large grocery stores across San Luis Obispo County — from Nipomo to Paso Robles — and gathered the prices for more than 50 items we identified as ingredients or dishes of a traditional Thanksgiving meal.
This includes the ingredients to make dishes such as pumpkin pie, mashed potatoes and cranberry sauce from scratch, as well as their pre-made counterparts.
Where possible, we also included implements commonly used to prepare Thanksgiving meals, including aluminum foil pans, meat thermometers and flavor injectors and basters.
The Tribune only included the prices of the least expensive options available at each store. Although that might include name brand options, store brands were the cheapest in most cases.
Because of this, these estimates should be taken as a lowest-possible estimate. Actual costs may be much higher depending on whether you prefer organic vegetables, gluten-free options and so forth.
In all, we found the average cost of a simple Thanksgiving meal — complete with turkey, ham, salad, green bean and sweet potato casseroles, pumpkin pie, bread rolls and mashed potatoes — was about $101.
The least expensive of the 12 stores surveyed was Target in Paso Robles, where a full meal cost around $72.
The most expensive location was Food 4 Less in Paso Robles, where it cost a whopping $130 to recreate the same meal.
Turkey prices vary by pound across SLO County
There was definitely no shortage of turkeys at San Luis Obispo County grocery stores as of Monday.
Turkeys of various sizes were available at all 12 of the stores analyzed for this guide, with prices varying from 79 cents per pound at Target in Paso Robles to $2.99 per pound at Whole Foods in San Luis Obispo.
At most local grocery stores, the cheapest turkeys per pound weighed in at roughly 12 pounds.
Target was only selling turkeys that were about 16 pounds or larger. Costing a total of $12.64 per bird, that was the best deal for a turkey in SLO County.
The next-least-expensive turkey per pound was found at Aldi in Arroyo Grande. That store was selling 20-plus-pound turkeys for $0.87 per pound, for a total of about $17.40.
The most expensive turkey in the county was at Whole Foods, where a 10-pound turkey will cost you $29.99.
If you prefer a nice Thanksgiving ham, get ready to open your wallet a whole lot wider.
Spiral cut hams were some of the most expensive items at grocery stores through SLO County this Thanksgiving season, with prices ranging from $1.29 per pound at Target in Paso Robles and Grocery Outlet in Atascadero to $3.99 per pound at Smart and Final in Atascadero.
Though Paso Robles’ Food 4 Less supermarket wasn’t the most expensive option for hams at $2.79 per pound, availability was limited on Nov. 19 to only 20-plus pound hams, bringing the total cost to more than $55.
Pumpkin pies and the price of spice
One category that had a huge disparity in prices across the county? Pumpkin pies.
A store-bought pie will cost you anywhere from $3.49 at Aldi in Arroyo Grande to $13.99 at California Fresh Market in Pismo Beach.
Meanwhile, folks making pumpkin pie from scratch — even those following an easy recipe that includes pre-made crust, pumpkin puree, condensed milk, pumpkin pie spice and whipped cream —will likely spend more than those opting for storebought pastries.
On average, it’ll cost you roughly $15.10 to craft a pumpkin pie from scratch in SLO County, according to the price analysis.
As to where is cheapest, buying the ingredients from Target in Paso Robles will only set you back about $9.61. There, pumpkin pie spice costs $2.39, compared with more than $7 at other local grocery stores.
The same recipe could cost you as much as $21.45 if you buy the items from Sprouts in San Luis Obispo.
Casseroles, mashed potatoes and more
The cost of making another popular Turkey Day treat, a sweet potato casserole, also varies widely.
For the simplest version of the fall treat — which includes fresh sweet potatoes, mini marshmallows, ground cinnamon, white sugar, brown sugar and butter — you’ll have to spend between $9.70 at Walmart in Arroyo Grande and $19.93 at Sprouts.
On average, you can expect to spend approximately $14.80 to make a sweet potato casserole in San Luis Obispo County.
Meanwhile, a classic green bean casserole, featuring fresh green beans, canned cream of mushroom soup, crispy onion straws and milk, will run you between $7 and $15, with Aldi and California Fresh Market as the least and most expensive options, respectively.
Substitute canned green beans for fresh and in most cases you’ll drop the cost by at least $2.
Mashed potato flakes, whether you love them or hate them, are the cheapest option for that popular dish, with most places selling a large box for less than $2.
Meanwhile, the premade gravy to go on top costs between 97 cents at Aldi and $8.29 at Sprouts.
Want to know more prices? Search our database
To help in your personal shopping, The Tribune has compiled a searchable database where you can look up prices on select items at the 12 stores surveyed.
Some of the items that make an appearance are potatoes, fresh herbs, aluminum pans and even meat thermometers.
If you are having trouble viewing the database, you can visit the link here.
This story was originally published November 23, 2021 at 10:34 AM.
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