Are suicides spiking in SLO County amid shelter at home? Just the opposite, data show
San Luis Obispo County is not experiencing a spate of suicides driven by the impacts of COVID-19, despite rumors to the contrary, data show.
In reality, the county has experienced far fewer suicides to date this year than any year going back to at least 2016, including during the months shelter-at-home orders have been in place, according to data for the past five years provided by the San Luis Obispo County Sheriff-Coroner’s Office.
“I have been asked about those rumors and have seen nothing to substantiate them,” said Michael Kaplan, community engagement director of the nonprofit Transitions Mental Health Association in San Luis Obispo. “We’re not seeing the spike that people are anticipating.”
National polls and media reports show that the coronavirus pandemic and related financial fallout are threatening the mental health of tens of millions of Americans, but there is not yet reliable national data for how the crisis has impacted already high and rising rates of suicide.
But the possibility of a flare of suicides has become a leading argument in support of ending the shelter-at-home order and re-opening a depressed economy.
For example, in a letter to The Tribune earlier in May, San Luis Obispo County Republican Party chair Randall Jordan cited one reason in support of re-opening local businesses is that the “lockdown is causing untold Californians of all ages serious mental harm and tragic increases in suicides. ...”
At Tuesday’s San Luis Obispo County Board of Supervisors meeting, several speakers in public comment cited alleged recent local suicides prompted by the coronavirus response and related economic downturn as reason to end the shelter-at-home order.
But data from the Sheriff-Coroner’s Office shows that, even amid the pandemic, suicides have been less frequent in San Luis Obispo County than they’ve been in at least the last five years.
SLO County suicide numbers
As of May 14, the county had experienced 12 suicides, data show. At that rate, the total for this calendar year is expected to reach 33 deaths, or a per capita rate of 11.6 per every 100,000 people.
There were 49 suicides recorded in San Luis Obispo County in 2019, a rate of 17.1 per 100,000 people. Meanwhile, 61 suicides were recorded in 2018, 51 in 2017 and 2016 saw 64 suicides.
Deaths recorded as suicides include overdoses determined to be intentional.
The county implemented its shelter-at-home order on March 19.
Seven suicides had been recorded locally in 2020 prior to that order: one in January and six in February. There were no suicides recorded in March, the month the order was first put in place, while three were recorded in April, and two were recorded in May as of May 14, according to the Sheriff-Coroner’s Office.
Even when comparing the 4.5-month period of Jan. 1 through May 14, San Luis Obispo County suicides so far in 2020 are the lowest they’ve been since at least 2016.
During that period in 2016, the county recorded 31 suicides. Twenty-one were recorded during that period in 2017, 22 in 2018, 17 in 2019 and 12 to date this year, according to the agency’s numbers.
“If anything, it appears the number of suicides have declined significantly so far this year,” Sheriff’s Office spokesman Tony Cipolla said in an email.
Calls to local crisis hotline down
Suicide is the 10th leading cause of death in the United States, according to the American Foundation for Suicide Prevention, and in 2018 killed 48,344 Americans.
The county Public Health Department says that, though California has an overall lower rate of suicide compared to other U.S. states, San Luis Obispo County has one of the higher rates of suicide per capita among the state’s 58 counties — higher than Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego counties.
Frank Warren, manager of prevention and outreach with the county Behavioral Health Department, said San Luis Obispo County has historically seen a higher suicide rate than most of the state due to the county’s geography and demographics.
The rate of suicide is highest in middle-aged white men, with white males accounting for almost 70% of all suicide deaths in the U.S. in 2018. The highest rate was among adults ages 52 to 59 years old, according to the American Foundation for Suicide Prevention.
In San Luis Obispo County, nearly 70% of residents are white (not of Hispanic origin), 51% are male, and almost 58% are between the ages of 18 and 65 years old, according to 2019 U.S. Census estimates.
“Suicide does happen. It’s a reality here,” Warren said. “We’re in a high-risk area with older white people.”
Spring is generally considered the time of year in which suicides are most prevalent, Transitions Mental Health Association’s Kaplan said.
Kaplan said that despite the decline in suicide deaths, the county’s local crisis hotline is seeing traffic consistent with previous years.
Overall traffic to the National Suicide Prevention Hotline — which will link callers to local organizations and services in their area, such as Transitions — actually went down slightly early into the pandemic, he said.
Records from Transitions show local traffic to its SLO Hotline, as well as calls routed to the Transitions call center from the national hotline, decreased from March. During that month, the SLO Hotline received 897 calls, compared to April, when 763 were received.
During the same two-month period in 2019, the SLO Hotline received 1,109 calls in March and 950 in April, which decreased further to 799 in May 2019.
In all of 2020, the SLO Hotline has received 3,577 distinct calls. The local hotline received a total of 10,189 calls in all of 2019, the records show.
Transitions currently has roughly a dozen people — paid employees and volunteers — who staff its hotline.
Local officials and mental health professionals told The Tribune that there is no concrete data to explain the county’s recent decline in suicides, but Kaplan shared his own “unofficial theory.”
“Suicidal ideation often happens when a person is in isolation, when they feel that no one else can be feeling the way they do. And that’s why hotlines are so important,” Kaplan said. “But with (the coronavirus pandemic and shelter-at-home order), we’re all talking about what we’re going through.”
“I don’t think there’s anybody who’s going to say this isn’t a strange time,” he added.
While a recent report in the Journal of the American Medical Association raised concerns about a “perfect storm” of social and economic conditions that could potentially lead to spikes in suicide, the article also noted “optimistic considerations” that support Kaplan’s theory.
The report concludes that suicide rates declined in the period immediately following other national disasters, such as the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
“One hypothesis is the so-called pulling-together effect, whereby individuals undergoing a shared experience might support one another, thus strengthening social connectedness,” the report reads. “Recent advancements in technology (e.g., video conferencing) might facilitate pulling together. Epidemics and pandemics may also alter one’s views on health and mortality, making life more precious, death more fearsome, and suicide less likely.”
How to get help
If you or a loved one are in need of help, call the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 800-273-TALK (8255). The Crisis Text Line also provides free, 24/7, confidential support via text message to people in crisis when they text to 741741.
In San Luis Obispo County, Transitions Mental Health Association’s SLO Hotline can be reached toll-free at 800-783-0607.
The nonprofit is always seeking volunteers to staff the hotline and other programs to serve the community. More information can be found at t-mha.org/volunteer.php.
The county’s Behavioral Health Department has a list of local resources, training, and services available to the public on its website at bit.ly/2TjB3Sw.
