SLO County Public Health: Expect coronavirus to stick around for ‘a long period of time’
As San Luis Obispo County residents adjust to the new realities of a global coronavirus pandemic, such as shuttered businesses and mandatory social distancing, many are asking: How much longer will this last?
Thirteen days after the first case of coronavirus was confirmed in San Luis Obispo County, the number of local COVID-19 cases has ballooned to 59 — and that’s likely only just the beginning, according to San Luis Obispo County public health officer Penny Borenstein.
At a Friday media briefing, Borenstein said that one of the biggest questions her department is getting at the moment is when the local numbers will peak, and when residents could potentially return to their normal, pre-pandemic lives.
“That is a very difficult outcome to predict,” Borenstein said.
Borenstein’s analysis of other regions and their rates of transmission has her thinking the local outbreak could last anywhere between six weeks to three months, she said.
Given the first confirmed San Luis Obispo County case was March 14, a peak in the number of cases could occur in about a week — or it could take three weeks.
“We don’t know,” she said.
The end of the outbreak will also depend on immunity — either through a man-made vaccine or enough people getting a natural immunity to the virus by being exposed to it that it makes it impossible for it to spread, Borenstein said.
Either way, county officials’ current play is to try to spread the number of local cases out of a long period of time so as to not overwhelm hospitals and healthcare systems. In the meantime, they’ll wait for immunity.
“There are very smart and very committed people working on getting that timeline shortened,” Borenstein said, adding that “ultimately we probably will be seeing ongoing cases for a long period of time.”
This means it’s unlikely that the county’s shelter-at-home order, one of the biggest changes in local residents’ lives, will be lifted any time soon.
“Decisions we will have to make as leaders of this community,” Borenstein said. “We are not going to be able to lift social distancing next week, or the week after or probably some time to come.”
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