Paso Robles has 42% of SLO County’s COVID-19 cases — but the big question is, why?
From the moment the coronavirus outbreak hit San Luis Obispo County, one fact has remained clear — the North County is the local hotspot for COVID-19 cases.
About 64% of all residents who’ve tested positive for COVID-19 since March 14 have been located north of the Cuesta Grade, according to data from the county Public Health Department.
As of Tuesday, Paso Robles alone had 110 COVID-19 cases — about 42% of the 263 total cases in the county.
In a region that contains the predominance of local cases, that number is still almost triple the next highest community, Atascadero, which had 38 cases.
Rounding out the North County, San Miguel had nine cases, Templeton had eight cases, and three additional cases are located elsewhere in the region, but Public Health officials don’t provide community-level data unless an area has at least five positive COVID-19 tests.
The question is, why are there more cases in Atascadero, Templeton, San Miguel and, most of all, Paso Robles? Are there unique factors in these communities that have promoted the virus’s spread?
So far, no one has definitively answered that question.
“We have a very aggressive contact tracing program in our county,” said Michelle Shoresman, a county Public Health Department spokeswoman, in an email. “So, when we find one case, we contact, track and test, if necessary, almost everyone that has come in contact with that person. This method is generally successful in finding more cases and identifying clusters. The high incidence in North County is largely a product of that process.”
“The higher incidence is not related to a particular restaurant, food establishment, gas station or any other business,” Shoresman added. “In fact, even when we found a case in a residential care facility, that facility and public health were successful in containing the spread with precautions, contact tracing and testing.”
Public Health officials declined to answer further questions about what might be behind the high rate of infection in Paso Robles and the North County.
SLO County COVID-19 cases per capita
The concentration of cases in the North County is even more stark when comparing communities’ COVID-19 cases per capita, or how many they have per 10,000 residents.
County Public Health officials assign cases to communities based on zip code areas. For example, all COVID-19 cases identified in the 93446 zip code are assigned to Paso Robles, even though some residents who tested positive may live outside city limits.
San Luis Obispo — which has a population of about 65,000 people between the 93401 and 93405 zip codes — has about three COVID-19 cases per 10,000 residents.
In contrast, the Paso Robles zip code, which includes about 45,000 people, has a positive test rate that’s more than eight times the level in SLO: about 25 cases per 10,000 residents.
Tiny San Miguel — which is located in a zip code area that contains just over 4,000 people — has a similarly high incidence of 22 COVID-19 cases per 10,000 residents.
The divide between zip codes is especially clear when comparing the North County to the North Coast, which had 12 COVID-19 cases altogether as of Tuesday, according to county Public Health data.
Of those, Morro Bay had six cases, meaning the six remaining COVID-19 cases are spread among the other communities in the region. County Public Health officials aren’t providing data for communities with fewer than five cases, so it’s impossible to calculate rates for the other coastal towns.
But the low number itself means a community like Los Osos — which is located in a zip code area with a population of about 16,000 people — could have no more than four COVID-19 cases at most, meaning it likely has a rate of no more than 2 cases per 10,000 residents. That’s less than one-twelfth the rate in Paso.
If Cambria — which is located in a zip code area with nearly 6,000 residents — has four COVID-19 cases, the community would have about seven cases per 10,000 residents.
Why are there so many COVID-19 cases in Paso Robles?
Paso Robles Mayor Steve Martin said he was told the first clusters of the virus in his area were found to have originated from two sources — a communal living community in which residents frequently ate together and a large extended family in which multiple relatives had become infected.
Additional family clusters had also been identified in the Paso Robles area, he said.
“Why that has happened in 93446 and not elsewhere, I don’t know,” Martin said.
He said the emails he’s received about the issue have been divided, with some strongly in favor of stay-at-home measures and business closures and others against them.
Martin said he approves of the way officials have led the county during the coronavirus outbreak and strongly supports social distancing, mask-wearing and hand-washing.
He said he’s observed “a mix” of Paso Robles residents wearing masks and face coverings and going without them. Mandating mask-wearing in the city would be difficult to enforce, but people should make an effort to wear them even without an official order, he said.
“Everyone knows down in their heart the right thing to do is wear a mask,” Martin said.
He understands months of living under stay-at-home orders have made residents and business owners frustrated.
But Martin compared the push to wear masks and social distance to previous efforts to conserve water during droughts. His constituents persevered then, and they can do so again now, he said.
“Our people are not stupid,” Martin said. “They know what they need to do to make this happen.”
This story was originally published May 27, 2020 at 10:00 AM.
