National Democrats’ pick may fail as progressive leads in key congressional race
National Democrats may soon face an uncomfortable reality in California’s 22nd Congressional District, one of the country’s most closely watched House races.
Despite backing Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains for the seat, the party’s preferred candidate currently trails progressive Democrat and political newcomer Randy Villegas in the early primary results. The two Democrats have spent months battling for the chance to challenge Republican Rep. David Valadao, who has won the Central Valley seat six of the past seven elections.
Many ballots remain uncounted but Villegas’ lead over Bains has grown with each new batch of results.
As of Wednesday, he had secured 29.8% of the votes compared to 25.7% for Bains. Villegas, a college professor and school board trustee, also led her in four of the district’s five counties. Valadao had roughly 45% of the vote and will advance to the November general election.
The early Democratic results come despite a surprising intervention from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the party’s U.S. House campaign and fundraising arm, which threw its support behind Bains last month. Political consultants in the Central Valley said the move reflected national Democrats’ belief that Bains, a moderate Democrat with a healthcare background, would be the stronger candidate against Valadao.
Villegas had relatively little name recognition when he launched his campaign last year. But he built a grassroots following in the heavily Latino, working class district.
“A kid who’s on the Visalia Unified School Board, in theory, is going to slay the DCCC and wind up in a runoff for one of the most important seats in the House, and the Democratic establishment was helpless,” said Alex Tavlian, a Central Valley Republican political consultant who previously worked for Valadao. “That’s a damning indictment for the party’s establishment.”
If Villegas’ lead holds, national Democrats are expected to quickly rally behind the progressive candidate as the 22nd District is viewed as critical to the party’s efforts to reclaim control of the House.
It is also one of five California House seats Democrats hoped would become more favorable after voters approved Proposition 50 last year. The district has become even more important following setbacks to Democratic redistricting efforts in other states.
Valadao is seen as particularly vulnerable this cycle after his key vote last year to cut Medicaid spending, a resource for more than two-thirds of residents in the district.
“I do think that the DCCC, if the votes hold as they are now, should act quickly to make nice with Villegas,” said Blake Zante, executive director of the Maddy Institute, a nonpartisan public policy organization in the San Joaquin Valley. “I anticipate that they’ll get behind him pretty quickly here as we head towards the general.”
A DCCC spokesperson declined to comment on the possibility of Bains failing to advance or whether the committee would support Villegas in the general election.
“They should probably just avoid engaging in these races in the primaries in the future, because they seem like they’re more often wrong than they are right,” said Tal Eslick, a political strategist and former chief of staff for Valadao.
Villegas said on Wednesday he was willing to “work with anyone and everyone” who wants a better future for the Central Valley when asked if he would welcome the DCCC’s support.
He remained “cautiously optimistic” about his chances of advancing and argued the results had sent a message to “D.C. elites, billionaires and oligarchs.”
“We know how essential it is to flip this seat, and to not just flip it, but keep it in Democratic hands and make sure that we have someone who’s always going to put our communities ahead of corporate interests,” Villegas said in a phone interview.
Bains’ campaign did not respond to request for comment. In a news release Wednesday afternoon, the campaign stressed patience and that “counting every vote takes time.”
“Our campaign is energized, encouraged and confident in our path forward,” the statement said.
Should he advance, Villegas would once again be the underdog heading into November.
Valadao, who was first elected to Congress in 2012, has repeatedly defied the district’s Democratic registration advantage by winning over independents. A general election campaign would likely emphasize his moderate views while portraying Villegas’ progressive politics as out of step with many district voters.
“Getting 30% in a primary election is a far cry from 50% in a general election,” Eslick said. “So, I think he’s got his work cut out for him.”
This story was originally published June 3, 2026 at 4:30 PM with the headline "National Democrats’ pick may fail as progressive leads in key congressional race."
