Poll finds 5 candidates in virtual dead heat atop crowded CA governor’s race
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Five candidates locked in a tight race, led by Republican Steve Hilton at 14%.
- Top-two system raises chance of two Republicans advancing amid split Democratic field.
- Voters list cost of living/economy top; Newsom approval sits at 52%.
The California governor’s race remains wide open, according to a new poll, roughly three months before a June primary that will narrow the field to two candidates.
The survey, released Wednesday from the Public Policy Institute of California, found a dead heat among five contenders: GOP commentator Steve Hilton, former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, GOP Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Dublin, and Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer.
Hilton topped the pack with 14% support of the 1,049 likely voters surveyed earlier this month by PPIC, while Steyer, the lowest polling in the group, drew 10% of likely voters — within the survey’s 4% margin of error.
“This is an early read on the governor’s race,” said PPIC Survey Director Mark Baldassare. “At this point, any of these candidates could make the top two.”
Roughly a third of likely voters listed cost of living, the economy or inflation as their top issue for the governor and Legislature in 2026, a trend that PPIC said held true across parties, regions and demographic groups.
The splintered Democratic field and California’s unique top-two primary system has raised the possibility of the two Republicans, Hilton and Bianco, advancing to the general election in a solidly blue state. Some Democrats have called for lower-polling candidates to drop out of the race ahead of the March 6 filing deadline.
Top Democrats like Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, D-San Francisco, have dismissed the scenario of a GOP primary sweep in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 2:1. But Pelosi and other party leaders, including Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris, have so far avoided making endorsements. And while some smaller labor unions have begun to weigh in, larger ones, like SEIU California, have yet to make picks.
If anything, the field has become more fractured since PPIC’s last poll in November, when Porter led the field with 21% of the vote. Democrat Xavier Becerra, a former U.S. secretary of Health and Human Services and California attorney general, also saw his support drop from 14% in December to 5% this month.
The February poll showed Becerra tied with Democrats Betty Yee and Antonio Villaraigosa. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, who entered the race last month and quickly raised millions from Silicon Valley backers, was the top pick for 3% of likely voters, though Baldassare cautioned against reading too much into the number given the poll was conducted shortly after Mahan’s announcement.
Some 54% of Californians polled, led by independents and Republicans, told PPIC pollsters the state is headed in the wrong direction. A slim majority of likely voters—52%—said they approved of the job Newsom is doing.
Californians gave far worse marks to President Donald Trump, with 70% saying they disapprove of his handling of the job.
This story was originally published February 25, 2026 at 9:00 PM with the headline "Poll finds 5 candidates in virtual dead heat atop crowded CA governor’s race."