Rep. Kevin Kiley was once the darling of Trump. Is he shifting away from him?
Nearly four years ago, a surprise endorsement from President Donald Trump helped propel Kevin Kiley from the state Assembly to Congress.
“He doesn’t wait for the fight, like the do-nothing RINOs who have watched California get absolutely destroyed by the radical maniacs in Sacramento… Kevin is going to be a MAGA champion in Congress,” Trump said in May 2022, using a derogatory acronym that stands for “Republican in name only.”
The backing — delivered after a private half-hour meeting at a Trump California golf course — elevated Kiley to the prohibitive frontrunner in a Republican race and helped cement his image as a combative conservative aligned with the party’s most powerful figure.
Today, Kiley’s relationship with Trump and the Republican Party is complicated.
He has emerged in the last year as one of the few House Republicans willing to break with GOP leadership. The moves come as Kiley’s political future is less certain after California’s Proposition 50 dramatically reshaped his district into more Democratic-friendly territory.
Last fall, Kiley spent weeks voicing frustration after Speaker Mike Johnson refused to bring forward floor legislation to prohibit mid-decade redistricting across the country. In December, Kiley continued his criticism of Johnson during Congress discussions over health care subsidies. At one point, he accused Johnson of lying about negotiations.
Kiley, 41, furthered his defection last month by siding with Democrats to block a procedural maneuver that shielded Trump’s tariff agenda from votes.
When asked about a recent shift toward the political center, Kiley said he had probably moved “in many different ways” throughout his time in office.
“In response to how my views evolved, in response to how the needs of the moment change,” Kiley told The Sacramento Bee last month. “I don’t think anyone is ever perfect, and so I’m always willing to learn and to evolve my views as facts and circumstances require.”
Political experts and consultants say Kiley’s defiance is likely rooted in frustration and recalibration. After redistricting reshaped his political future, Kiley is more willing to demonstrate independence, must appeal to a broader base of voters and could be redefining his relationship with Trump.
“I don’t know if he needs Trump as much as back in the beginning, when he wasn’t that well known,” said Christian Grose, a professor of political science and public policy at the University of Southern California.
Kiley said he will announce on Monday where he plans to seek re-election. He’s spent the last few weeks publicly eliminating potential congressional districts. His chances of winning in the two remaining options appear slim.
‘Raising the profile of a Republican’
Kiley, a former high school teacher and Harvard Law School graduate, has carefully navigated his relationship with Trump for years.
He was elected to the Assembly in 2016. That same year, he told The Bee that he planned to vote for moderate Ohio Gov. John Kasich over Trump in the Republican primary.
In the years that followed, Kiley thrust himself into the spotlight as the chief critic of Gov. Gavin Newsom. He championed a recall effort that ultimately failed and authored a book, “Recall Newsom: The Case against America’s Most Corrupt Governor,” in 2021.
Later that year, Kiley sidestepped a question from The Bee asking if former President Joe Biden was legitimately elected. Trump has called the election riddled with fraud.
“I’m looking ahead to the next election,” Kiley responded. “I don’t think it does us any good to be litigating past battles.”
Even so, Kiley’s adversarial relationship with Newsom helped set the stage for a May 2022 meeting with Trump who didn’t know Kiley prior to the interaction. The two met for only 30 minutes at the Trump National Golf Club Los Angeles in Palos Verdes before the then-former president decided to endorse the Rocklin assemblyman for Congress, according to previous reporting from The Bee.
“No one has fought Gavin Newsom harder than Kevin,” Trump said in his endorsement.
Kiley responded in admiration.
“I will fight to restore the prosperous economy, secure border, and safe communities that marked President Trump’s time in office, and I am honored to have his endorsement,” he said in a statement.
At the time, Kiley was weeks away from competing in the 3rd Congressional District June primary election. Scott Jones, a Republican former Sacramento County sheriff, had been seen as the favorite for the Trump endorsement.
Instead, Kiley received Trump’s seal of approval and went on to beat Democrat Kermit Jones in the November 2022 election.
“I don’t think you can discount the impact of a Trump endorsement in terms of raising the profile of a Republican,” said Jacob Rubashkin, the deputy editor of Inside Elections, which provides nonpartisan analysis of political campaigns.
‘Betrayal on Prop. 50’
But Kiley’s political landscape has shifted in large part because of Trump.
A mid-decade redistricting change in Texas — encouraged by Trump — led to California Democratic leaders placing Prop. 50 on the ballot and triggered major changes to Kiley’s district.
Kiley was outspoken in opposing both efforts and urged Johnson to advance legislation in the House to ban mid-decade redistricting nationwide. Johnson declined.
“I felt it was the responsibility of the speaker to take action to stop this from causing chaos in the institution that he leads,” Kiley said on Feb. 17.
Republican consultant Rob Stutzman called Prop. 50 a pivotal moment for Kiley and what followed was a “clear break” with party leadership.
Under California’s new congressional map, Kiley’s current district was split into six pieces. What remains of the district has leaned heavily Democratic in the past years, leaving him virtually no prospects of re-election there.
“It starts with what he considers a betrayal on Prop. 50…There was no help,” Stutzman said.
Kiley repeatedly clashed with Republican leadership in the following months.
He returned to Capitol Hill during a government shutdown as a one-man protest. He criticized Johnson for delaying the seating of an Arizona Democrat who had won a special election.
Kiley also broke with many Republicans when he urged the party to negotiate with Democrats over extending health insurance subsidies to help end the shutdown. He later voted against a three-year extension, arguing he preferred a shorter renewal.
Perhaps his most consequential break came last month when he voted against a procedural motion that would have blocked congressional votes on Trump’s emergency tariffs. Kiley said his opposition centered on constitutional oversight, not the substance of tariff policy.
Before the vote, Trump warned that any Republican who opposed the tariffs would “seriously suffer the consequences” in this year’s election.
“You can make an informed speculation that he (Kiley) understands that his future voters look a little bit different than his past voters, and he’s trying to get himself in a position where he can still be competitive,” Rubashkin said.
‘Post-Trump era’
Kiley’s announcement Monday could only lead to further distance from the GOP.
One option is the 6th Congressional District, a left-leaning seat that features a crowded field of Democratic contenders. The other is the 5th Congressional District, a more reliably Republican area currently represented by incumbent Tom McClintock, who would be expected to secure Trump’s endorsement.
In the 6th District, Rubashkin said Kiley would be campaigning before an electorate different from the one that first elected him. His recent breaks with Republican leadership could help him appeal to independent and moderate voters in a competitive general election.
In that scenario, Stutzman said, criticism from Trump could even bolster Kiley’s standing.
“I think he will get on his knees and pray every evening that Trump attacks him,” Stutzman said.
A run in the 5th District would present a different dynamic. McClintock has previously earned a perfect rating from the American Conservative Union and maintains strong conservative credentials. In a Republican primary, Trump’s backing could again carry weight.
Even there, Grose said, Kiley’s recent stances could offer him room to draw contrasts.
“He could point to a few things where he’s a little different,” Grose said.
Charles Turner, a political science professor at California State University, Chico, said Kiley may also be thinking beyond this election cycle. Trump’s approval ratings have declined in over the last few months, and it remains unclear how enduring his political influence will be beyond his presidency.
“He’s probably looking at decades in politics that are going to be post-Trump,” Turner said. “I think there’s this sense that there’s going to be a post-Trump era, and that some folks are going to suffer from having been affiliated with him.”
This story was originally published February 28, 2026 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Rep. Kevin Kiley was once the darling of Trump. Is he shifting away from him?."
