California voters likely to pass Prop. 50 gerrymander, late polling shows
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Berkeley IGS poll shows Prop. 50 leading 60% to 38% among likely voters statewide.
- Democrats back Prop. 50 at 93% while Republicans oppose it at 91%.
- Fundraising gap left opponents cash-starved while Newsom raised over $114 million.
California voters appear poised to overwhelmingly pass Gov. Gavin Newsom-backed Proposition 50, which would redraw the state’s congressional map in an effort to oust five Republican House members.
A new poll from the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies showed 60% of likely voters said they would vote for the measure, compared to 38% who said they would oppose it. Only 2% of likely voters were undecided in the poll, which was conducted online in English and Spanish between October 20-27.
The poll surveyed 8,1,41 voters, including 4,946 who had already voted or were considered likely to vote in the election that ends on Nov. 4.
Among those who said they had already voted, 67% said they voted in favor of Prop. 50 and 33% said they voted against it.
Newsom, who is leading the ‘Yes’ campaign, has rallied big-name Democrats like former President Barack Obama and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to campaign in support of the measure.
“The results suggest that Democrats have succeeded in framing the debate surrounding the proposition around support or opposition to President Trump and national Republicans, rather than about voters’ more general preference for nonpartisan redistricting,” said IGS Co-director Eric Schickler.
The poll underlines the highly partisan nature of the ballot proposition: 93% of Democrats said they support it while 91% of Republicans said they oppose it. No Party Preference voters lean toward the ‘Yes’ side with 57% saying they support Prop. 50 and 39% against it.
After running out of cash earlier this month, Republican-backed campaigns opposing Prop. 50 failed to mount a large-scale ad campaign to educate and turn out voters against the measure during the election’s final stretch.
After raising more than $114 million for his campaign, Newsom told supporters in an email earlier this week to “stop donating.”
“We have hit our budget goals and raised what we need in order to pass Proposition 50,” he wrote. “You can stop donating.”
The IGS poll, which is one of the most respected in California, follows other recent surveys that show Prop. 50 in a good position to pass.
An Emerson College poll out earlier this week showed it ahead with 57% support from likely voters.
Last week, a poll conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California in early October showed Prop. 50 leading with 56% among likely voters.
As of Thursday morning, more than 5 million mail ballots have been returned, about 22% of all registered voters, according to a tracker by election data and redistricting expert Paul Mitchell.
More than 52% of ballots returned so far have come from Democrats, who make up 45% of all registered voters in California.
This story was originally published October 30, 2025 at 12:12 PM with the headline "California voters likely to pass Prop. 50 gerrymander, late polling shows."
