Does early voting data on CA Prop. 50 provide a hint at whether it will pass?
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Early returns give Democrats an edge: 51% of ballots cast so far in early voting.
- Turnout trails 2021 recall; Latino and independent returns remain low.
- Postal changes risk uncounted ballots; campaigns push base turnout and targeting.
More than 2.4 million California voters have already weighed in on Proposition 50 – about one in 10 active registered voters in the state.
If it passes, Prop. 50 would redraw the state’s congressional boundaries to help Democrats pick up five additional seats as part of a redistricting battle with Republican-led Texas.
Turnout for the single-question election is lower than it was at this point during the 2021 recall against Gov. Gavin Newsom, which was California’s last special election held in an off year.
Paul Mitchell, whose firm Political Data Inc. tracks California ballot returns (and who drew the congressional map Californians are currently voting on), noted the recall “was during the pandemic and voters were being strongly encouraged to vote early by mail or drop box.”
Mitchell predicts overall turnout on Prop. 50 will be somewhere around 45% or 50% – still lower than the recall election, when turnout reached 58%.
Who’s returning ballots early?
Early voters tend to be whiter, older and more partisan, which is reflected in the ballot return data two weeks out from the Nov. 4 election.
About 12% of both registered Democratic and Republican voters have already returned their ballots, compared to 7% of voters registered with no party preference or smaller political parties.
In an election that both sides frame as one that will determine the fate of democracy itself, the low turnout among independent voters isn’t a surprise to political observers.
“It’s a sign of a hyper-partisanized electorate,” said Republican political strategist Mike Madrid. “If you have the proclivity to not align with either party, this election was tailor-made for you to sit out.”
If the partisan ballot return pattern holds strong, it will provide a big advantage for the “Yes” side, which is backed by Newsom and other Democratic leaders. While Democrats make up 45% of California’s voting base, 51% of ballots cast so far are from Democratic voters.
While the Republican Party has added 48,000 new voters to its ranks this year, it still has a 20-point registration disadvantage to Democrats in the state. If the partisan-leaning trend continues for Prop. 50, political experts say it will be to the benefit of the “Yes” side.
As of Tuesday morning, 13% of white voters have returned their ballots, along with 9% of both Asian and African American voters.
Latino voters comprise the lowest-turnout group so far. They make up more than a quarter of California’s voter base and 40 percent of the state’s total population, making Latinos the largest ethnic group in the state.
As of Tuesday, only 6% of Latino voters had returned their ballots on Prop. 50.
“The only group I really am interested in here is young Latino men. The ‘No’ side desperately needs them,” Madrid said. He added Latino voters tend to be “day-of voters” and he said he was unsurprised by the early voting data.
State officials have warned, though, that ballots dropped in the mailbox on Election Day – or even the preceding weekend – may not be counted because of new mail processing delays.
“Recent changes in the U.S. postal mail service mean that your ballot may not be counted if you drop it off at a post office or a USPS mailbox on election day,” Attorney General Rob Bonta said at a press conference Monday. “This is a change. I want to highlight this.”
The USPS policy change will affect mail coming mostly from rural areas but Bonta and Secretary of State Shirley Weber said it could also impact mail ballots processed through a facility in West Sacramento.
Strategy for the final stretch
In the last two weeks of the campaign, leaders on either side of Prop. 50 are trying to turn out base voters by linking the ballot measure to what they each paint as corrupt government leaders.
For the “Yes” side, former President Barack Obama urges Californians to vote yes in a 30-second ad running statewide.
“Republicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to rig the next election and wield unchecked power for two more years,” Obama says, adding that Prop. 50 “can stop Republicans in their tracks.”
Leaders of two separate “No” campaigns are targeting unaffiliated voters by talking about how Prop. 50 would weaken California’s independent redistricting commission.
“We believe this campaign is winnable and down the home stretch we’ll be speaking to all Californians, but especially those who are skeptical of politicians and don’t want them drawing their own lines,” said Amy Thoma Tan, spokesperson for the No campaign funded by Charles Munger Jr. and called Hold Politicians Accountable.
Tan said the campaign is “highlighting members of the citizens redistricting coalition who are Republicans, Democrats and Independents who firmly oppose this measure.”
Jessica Millan Patterson, chair of a separate No campaign called Stop Sacramento’s Power Grab, said voter awareness about Prop 50 is high and the campaign is “making a clear case to voters we need to turn out in targeted universes: Prop 50 is a costly, partisan power grab that strips millions of Californians of fair representation in Congress.”
Hannah Milgrom, spokesperson for the Yes on 50 campaign, said paid media like the ad with Obama and community-based canvassers are driving the final outreach effort.
“Our message is simple: Prop. 50 is how we stop Donald Trump from rigging the next election and continuing his MAGA agenda — from cutting our health care to sending the military into American cities,” she said.
This story was originally published October 21, 2025 at 9:39 AM with the headline "Does early voting data on CA Prop. 50 provide a hint at whether it will pass?."
