How much will CA gas prices rise after refinery fire? Here’s what you could pay
A fire at Chevron’s El Segundo oil refinery could push California gas prices higher soon, experts say.
The explosion and ensuing blaze started Oct. 2 at a facility with a long history of environmental and safety violations, the Los Angeles Times reported.
Although the refinery fire occurred in Southern California, one expert said the effects will likely be felt across the state.
“At this moment, with the way things are standing, it looks like this will be a problem not just for Southern California but for virtually the entire state,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told The Sacramento Bee.
While California drivers routinely pay some of the highest gas prices in the country, De Haan said that price increases will vary by region.
Here’s how much you could pay at the pump:
Where will gas prices rise the most in California?
Based on current developments, De Haan said, the Bay Area is likely to see the biggest impact on gas prices following the fire at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery.
“That could be because of refinery maintenance that’s also happening concurrently to this refinery outage that has developed,” he said.
Maintenance schedules vary across California refineries, which can cause price spikes in different regions.
“This refinery doesn’t produce gasoline just for Southern California but for the entire state,” De Haan said. “In fact, about 16% of California’s refining capacity is at the El Segundo refinery.”
How much will gas prices increase in Sacramento? Fresno?
The Chevron refinery in El Segundo produces 269,000 barrels of crude oil per day — making it California’s second-largest producing refinery after Marathon Petroleum in Los Angeles, according to the California Energy Commission.
As a result of the fire, gas prices in the Bay Area are expected to increase by 10 to 25 cents per gallon, De Haan said.
Prices in Sacramento and other parts of Northern California are expected to rise 10 to 20 cents over the next few days, while Southern California could see smaller increases of 5 to 15 cents in the coming weeks.
Gas prices in Fresno and the rest of the Central Valley are expected to “climb anywhere in between,” De Haan said.
“It’s a fluid situation,” he said. “Though there’s a lot of information we’ve already discovered, there could be further developments and shifts.”
De Haan said that prices will rise gradually, so drivers might not notice an immediate jump at the pump.
“The pace will vary, but I suspect most motorists will start noticing fairly soon,” he said. “It might not be a spike, but you could see prices slowly increasing by a few cents over a few days or longer.”
The fire could affect gas prices across California until the end of 2025, depending on how long it takes the refinery to resume full operations.
“Thankfully, there are other factors that could potentially soften the blow, such as the demand for price dropping in the fall,” De Haan said.
Seasonal shifts to cheaper winter-blend gasoline may offset some of the increases, making price hikes less noticeable for drivers.
How much does gas cost per gallon in California?
As of Monday, Oct. 6, the average price for regular gas in California was about $4.66 a gallon.
That’s more than a dollar higher than the national average of $3.13.
Around this time in 2024, California drivers were paying about $4.68 a gallon.
Where can I find lowest gas prices near me?
According to AAA, the most affordable fuel could primarily be found in parts of Northern and Southern California — with the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline dropping as low as $4.33 in Yuba City and $4.40 in Modesto.
As of Monday, Oct. 6, here’s how much a gallon of regular gas cost on average in metropolitan areas around California:
- Bakersfield: $4.64 per gallon
- Chico-Paradise: $4.42
- El Centro: $4.42
- Fresno: $4.61
- Hanford-Corcoran: $4.43
- Los Angeles-Long Beach: $4.73
- Madera-Chowchila: $4.59
- Merced: $4.53
- Modesto: $4.40
- Napa: $4.77
- Oakland: $4.63
- Orange County: $4.70
- Redding: $4.42
- Riverside: $4.61
- Sacramento: $4.57
- Salinas: $4.76
- San Bernardino: $4.62
- San Diego: $4.77
- San Francisco: $4.71
- San Jose: $4.57
- San Luis Obispo-Atascadero-Paso Robles: $4.90
- San Rafael: $4.73
- Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Lompoc: $4.63
- Santa Cruz-Watsonville: $4.64
- Santa Rosa: $4.79
- Stockton-Lodi: $4.48
- Vallejo-Fairfield: $4.56
- Ventura: $4.72
- Visalia-Tulare-Porterville: $4.56
- Yolo: $4.48
- Yuba City: $4.33
How can I find cheapest gas stations in my area?
GasBuddy is a price-tracking website designed to help motorists find the cheapest gas prices in their areas.
You can search for the most affordable gas stations in your area on the GasBuddy website.
This story was originally published October 7, 2025 at 5:00 AM with the headline "How much will CA gas prices rise after refinery fire? Here’s what you could pay."
