Could Northern California earthquakes lead to next ‘big one?’ Here’s what experts say
Repeated earthquakes in Northern California have residents wondering if they’re due for the next “big one.”
At least two people died and 12 were injured after a 6.4-magnitude earthquake rattled the small city of Ferndale in Humboldt County on Tuesday, Dec. 20, according to The Sacramento Bee. Aftershocks went on to rumble the region before on Wednesday, a 3.3-magnitude quake shook the San Francisco Bay Area hours after an earlier tremor.
“The big one is going to hit California any day now,” one user wrote on Twitter. “We have been getting nonstop earthquakes for a week now.”
They weren’t alone in thinking that.
“The big one is coming,” another user wrote. “That’s 3 big quakes across North California in like 2 weeks. Demon Oski is ready to emerge from the 50 yard line of memorial stadium and begin the rapture.”
Someone else said they had lived in the area and everyone acted like they weren’t living under the constant threat of a huge quake.
“California is due at any time for ‘the big one’ in the Bay Area from the San Andreas Fault,” they wrote. “I lived there for 8 years many years ago and we all just partied and didn’t think about it.”
So what do the experts say about the risks?
The earthquakes near Ferndale “are not necessarily indicative of a larger earthquake happening,” Angie Lux told McClatchy News. Lux is a seismologist at the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory.
“However, they do serve as a great reminder that we live in earthquake country, and that we should be prepared for the next big earthquake,” she said.
For those who don’t know, “big ones” can be of varying magnitudes but are generally considered magnitude 7 or above and occur in heavily populated areas, Lux said.
Magnitude 7 earthquakes are typically classified as very strong, causing considerable damage to poorly built structures but they pose minimal risk to well-designed buildings, according to the Modified Mercalli (MM) Intensity Scale.
When massive earthquakes happen out in remote areas, they don’t quite meet the criteria for a “big one.”
“That would be very different than a magnitude 7 happening on the Hayward Fault or the San Andreas Fault,” she said.
There are several faults in the Bay Area capable of generating big, destructive earthquakes, she said.
The area where the earthquakes are happening is where three tectonic plates meet, called the Mendocino Triple Junction, McClatchy News previously reported. It’s where the North American, Pacific and Gorda plates meet.
“Looking at historical records, we can see how frequently these earthquakes were occurring in the past and say, ‘well, based on that we’re overdue for an earthquake in that area,” she said. “We could have one any day now – that could be tomorrow or that could be 100 years from now.”
This story was originally published December 23, 2022 at 9:04 AM.
