Will California’s historic drought continue? Here are the latest winter weather predictions

There’s wet weather in the Northern California forecast this weekend, but don’t get your hopes up about an end to the drought.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in its annual winter outlook, said this week that California can expect “drier-than-average conditions” — suggesting that one of the worst droughts in recorded history will continue for a fourth year.

The agency said dry weather is expected in California, the southern Rockies and across much of the Midwest.

The winter forecast is crucial because California typically gets the vast majority of its yearly rain and snow between January and March. This year, however, the January-March period was among the driest ever seen.

Officials with the California Department of Water Resources have already said they’re preparing for “continued extreme drought” this winter. Folsom Lake, which provides water to much of the Sacramento region, sits at 30% below average for this time of year. Shasta Lake, the largest reservoir in California, is 41% below average.

The drought has created havoc in agriculture and the environment, and has prompted urban areas to tighten restrictions on outdoor watering. The sad state of the Sacramento River is hurting salmon and other endangered fish species. Sacramento Valley farmers were forced to scuttle about half of their rice crop this year. Residential wells are going dry across rural areas in the Central Valley. The drought has made much of California’s landscape more vulnerable to wildfires.

Some climate scientists believe the latest drought isn’t just three years old. Rather, it’s a continuation of a 20-year megadrought that’s likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

Despite the worsening conditions, Gov. Gavin Newsom has resisted calls to impose statewide water conservation mandates — rejecting the 25% cutbacks in urban usage ordered by his predecessor Jerry Brown in 2015. Instead, Newsom has continued to ask Californians to voluntarily reduce consumption by 15%, with mixed results.

This weekend’s forecast is hardly a drought-buster. The National Weather Service said light snow and rain are expected in the Sierra.

This story was originally published October 21, 2022 at 11:00 AM with the headline "Will California’s historic drought continue? Here are the latest winter weather predictions."