Enjoyed the rain? California eyes ‘fourth dry year’ as drought outlook remains grim
Yes, Northern California received some rain this week, dousing much of the Mosquito Fire and bringing a light coating of snow to the Sierra Nevada.
But one of the worst droughts in recorded history remains an everyday reality, and the outlook for winter is for more of the same, a top official with the state Department of Water Resources said this week.
“We’re thinking about the potential for a fourth dry year,” John Yarbrough, the agency’s assistant deputy director, told the California Water Commission on Wednesday.
Yarbrough’s prediction dovetails with other forecasts for a dry winter. On Monday the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said La Niña weather patterns are likely this winter.
La Niña patterns occur when the waters of the Pacific are cooler than usual. The result generally translates into weaker storms. Government forecasters said the La Niña has a 91% chance of persisting through this fall and 54% between January and March.
As it is, the drought has meant significant cutbacks in water supplies to most of California’s cities, farms and the environment. Crop production is down significantly, and the giant Metropolitan Water District of Southern California imposed unprecedented restrictions on lawn watering on 6 million homeowners.
On the other hand, Yarbrough said the state will enter the upcoming winter in better shape than it did a year ago. The flurry of storms last October and December means California’s major reservoirs are holding more water than at the same time in 2021.
“We are looking a lot better than we did last year,” he said. “We have more storage in the reservoirs. But we’re still well below average, well below where we’d like to be.
“It’s still very much dry conditions.”
Shasta Lake, the largest reservoir in the system, is sitting at 41% below average for late September. A year ago it was 57% below average. Folsom, which stores much of the Sacramento area’s water, is 27% below average. A year ago it was 54% below average.
This story was originally published September 22, 2022 at 1:19 PM with the headline "Enjoyed the rain? California eyes ‘fourth dry year’ as drought outlook remains grim."