Marin County budget faces possible revenue challenges

Marin County supervisors are reviewing a proposed budget that features $8.25 million in one-time spending, including $1.5 million to cushion the blow of House Resolution 1, the federal legislation known as the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act."

Josh Swedberg, the county's budget director, released the $902 million proposed budget for public review.

"We are forecasted to remain balanced over the coming three years, given our current assumptions," Swedberg told supervisors at their May 19 meeting. He added, however, that "those assumptions might change."

"We need to stay nimble and pay attention," he said.

The remaining $6.75 million in recommended one-time spending would consist of a $1 million contribution to the county's community infrastructure fund; $1 million to the West Marin infrastructure fund; $1 million for countywide traffic and safety quick-build projects; $700,000 for Marin Center community art and events activations; $500,000 to support immigrants; $500,000 for Civic Center signage and "wayfinding;" $250,000 for emergency operations implementation; and $1.8 million for departmental budget change proposals.

The change proposals would cover three expenditures: $1 million to hire an additional county counsel for a three-year term to support the increased workload created by state housing mandates; $500,000 to hire an assessment appeals director for a two-year term; and $300,000 to hire a cultural services program coordinator for a two-year term.

HR 1 makes major changes to Medi-Cal and CalFresh, programs funded by the state and federal government that provide medical care and food to the needy. The bill requires enrollees in both programs to comply with new work requirements. More than 6,700 Marin residents risk being disenrolled in Medi-Cal if they fail to meet the work requirement by Jan. 1, 2027.

The cost of caring for people losing their Medi-Cal coverage would likely fall to the county since California counties by law are the healthcare provider of last resort for residents 18 and older.

As many as 300 Marin residents would lose their federal food assistance due to their immigration status, and some 1,500 would be subject to the new work requirements. The county is projecting that changes in CalFresh alone could cost the county an additional $4.2 million, mostly in increased administrative costs.

County Executive Derek Johnson said a Board of Supervisors' hearing has been scheduled for June 8 to focus on the fiscal impact of HR 1 on the county.

"There are a fair amount of unknowns," Johnson said.

Perhaps the biggest question mark is the capacity and willingness of the state to backfill the lost federal revenue. Sophie Helpard, a legislative affairs associate for the county, said at the May 19 meeting the revised budget that Gov. Gavin Newsom released this month is balanced.

The state's year-to-date revenues were $16.5 billion greater than expected, largely due to income tax collection, Helpard said. She said estimated tax revenue was up 30% from three years earlier, likely due to "the artificial intelligence boom in the market."

Nevertheless, the Legislative Analyst's Office maintains that the state faces structural deficits of approximately $35 billion annually beginning in 2027-28.

"The greatest concern for this county coming out of the governor's budget is that there is no funding allocation for counties for acute care obligations," Helpard said.

Related Articles

* \u0009\u0009\u0009\u0009\u0009\u0009\u0009\u0009\u0009\u0009\u0009Marin County finds another $10.6M for one-time projects\u0009\u0009\u0009\u0009\u0009\u0009\u0009

The governor's revised budget also maintains a proposal to transition mobile crisis response service from a mandatory Medi-Cal benefit to an optional benefit effective April 1, 2027, she said.

"This would have a significant fiscal impact on Marin County to maintain the current level of service that we are providing," Helpard said.

While the county's expenses are expected to rise due to HR 1 and other factors, its revenue is failing to keep pace with historic growth. The majority of the county's discretionary funding comes from local property taxes. In the past, the county's property tax revenue has increased by about 5% per year.

Swedberg said he is revising his forecast to 4% in fiscal 2025-26 and fiscal 2026-27, followed by 4.5% in fiscal 2027-28.

The county has about $30 million in reserves to allow it to maintain essential services, but Johnson reminded supervisors that that money is insufficient to replace permanent losses in federal or state funding.

"It can be used as a glide path," Johnson said, "but ultimately you're kicking the can down the road."

Copyright 2026 Tribune Content Agency. All Rights Reserved.