News - Local

Monday, Jun. 29, 2009

SLO County in third straight year of drought after a skimpy rainy season

But forecasters see a drop of hope for next year: El Niño might bring a wave of wetter weather

| dsneed@thetribunenews.com
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Today San Luis Obispo County finishes its third straight year of drought. The Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant area, for example, received 9.07 inches of rain for the 2008-09 water year, according to the meteorological station. Normally, the plant receives 24 inches, said John Lindsey, a meteorologist with Pacific Gas and Electric Co., which operates the plant.

The rainfall year runs from July 1 through June 30.

Last year, the plant got 13.33 inches and two years ago, 9.7 inches. This three-year dry period was preceded by two years of wet or normal conditions.

Other areas in the county received similar meager levels of rainfall in the 2008-09 precipitation year, leaving the county in dry conditions. For example, the city of San Luis Obispo ends this year with 15.94 inches, well under the 24.36 inches that is normal.

The ongoing drought has prompted officials in Atascadero and Paso Robles to institute mandatory water conservation rules. San Miguel has formed a committee to look into similar regulations. Such rules typically ban daytime watering of lawns.

The North County often has drier conditions than other parts of the county.

Impact on farming

The drought is also affecting agriculture. Grazing is hardest hit with forage levels estimated at 55 percent of normal. This is enough for county Agricultural Commissioner Bob Lilley to declare a disaster, which will make federal money available.

Aquifers are also dropping. No one has lost a well yet, but some are having to drill deeper, Lilley said.

Problems for agriculture are expected to get much worse if the drought extends into four years, he said.

Hint of a change

Meanwhile, there is some reason for optimism for the rainfall outlook next year.

Forecasters say conditions indicate that an El Niño weather event is forming. Such events feature warm ocean temperatures in the middle Pacific Ocean and are often accompanied by wetter conditions along the West Coast.

“If the El Niño does materialize, it could produce a more normal rainfall season,” Lindsey said. “But take that with a grain of salt, for sure. It’s a rough correlation.”

Only very strong El Niños produce reliably wet weather, and next year’s event will coincide with a longer-term dry period caused by a different weather pattern called the Pacific decadal oscillation.

Such oscillations typically last for 30 years and contain many small wet and dry periods. The dry conditions of the oscillation and the wet conditions of an El Niño may cancel each other out and produce a normal rainfall year, Lindsey said.

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