Dan Walters: California Democrats crow over voter roll uptick

By Dan Walters
dwalters@sacbee.com

California's Democratic leaders, who have seen their share of the electorate decline by about 15 percentage points over the last three decades, are crowing about an uptick in registration.

Secretary of State Debra Bowen reported that Democratic registration jumped from 42.7 percent in December to 43.5 percent last month, while Republican registration declined by virtually the same amount.

"The Democratic voter registration train in California continues to accelerate while the Republican train has jumped off the tracks," state Democratic Chairman Art Torres proclaimed, citing a 469,700-voter gain from 2004 and a 109,870-voter loss by Republicans.

Torres and other Democratic leaders are also elated that two counties that had acquired Republican pluralities during the decades of Democratic decline, Ventura and Stanislaus, now have moved back into the Democratic column by narrow margins.

What neither they nor anyone else knows, however, is whether it's a permanent trend or merely a temporary lull in the long-term erosion of Democratic Party strength, which has been much more dramatic than the losses suffered by Republicans. Both parties have been losing ground to the rising ranks of independents aligned with no party, who now constitute just under 20 percent of voters.

President Bush's very low popularity in the state has contributed to the Democratic gains, no doubt, along with the intense voter interest generated by the duel between Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination and what Torres describes as an effective party registration drive.

Republican registration efforts, meanwhile, have been hindered by the state party's precarious finances, as well as Bush's unpopularity. But a few days after the registration report was released, Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner – a likely GOP candidate for governor in 2010 – announced that he was contributing from his vast personal fortune to a new voter registration drive.

The positive Democratic registration news has ramifications for this year's elections and, were it to continue, could impact the campaigns for governor, U.S. senator and other statewide offices two years hence.

Portions of newly Democratic Stanislaus County, for instance, are in the 12th Senate District, where Republican incumbent Jeff Denham faces a Democratic-sponsored recall election on June 3. And Republican registration has slipped by three percentage points, down to under 35 percent, since Denham won re-election in 2006.

Ventura County's new Democratic plurality, to cite another example, typifies the party's gains in the 19th Senate District, which is likely to be the state's most heavily contested legislative battleground in November. The district, centered in Ventura but including portions of Los Angeles and Santa Barbara counties, was designated as a Republican bastion in the bipartisan gerrymander of legislative seats seven years ago, but its once-large GOP voter margin has been shrinking.

Four years ago, as Republican Sen. Tom McClintock was seeking re-election in the 19th District, he had a seven-percentage-point GOP margin. Today it's down to scarcely two points as McClintock is forced out of the Legislature by term limits and seeks a congressional seat 400 miles to the north in the Sacramento suburbs. Two former Assembly members, Republican Tony Strickland and Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson, are preparing to duel in the 19th District, and the outcome could change the balance of power in the Senate, especially if the Denham recall succeeds.

Finally, whatever hopes Republican Sen. John McCain may harbor for winning California's presidential electoral votes will be dimmed if the gap between Republicans and Democrats continues to widen.