Daniel Weintraub: Dry spell raises tensions over state's future

By Daniel Weintraub
dweintraub@sacbee.com

PHILLIPS STATION – Frank Gehrke has been coming to a Sierra meadow here behind an old stagecoach stop for 21 years to check the depth of the snow for the Department of Water Resources, part of a tradition that is California's answer to Groundhog Day.

On Thursday, after Gehrke made the short walk from Highway 50, he found not snow but a pencil, one he'd lost earlier this year when he made the same walk along the top of what was then an ample snowpack. That pencil, now lying in the dirt, was bad news for California's water supply.

It foretold what Gehrke was about to see all along his walk: very little snow. As he worked his way, 50 feet at a time, through seven stations where he typically shoves a hollow metal tube into the snow until he hits the soil below, five of the spots were completely dry. The other two had just 9 inches and 14 inches of snow. Overall, the snow here averaged just 3.3 inches, and the water content was just 1.7 inches. That was 11 percent of normal for May 1.

Elsewhere in the Sierra the findings last week were better, but overall the snow and the water it stores averaged just 67 percent of normal. A March and April that were the driest on record delivered what Gehrke called a "double whammy": no new snow to add to the pack and plenty of sunshine to melt what was there. A year that looked bountiful in late January and still promising by March 1 had turned, in Gehrke's words, "grim."

So far, Gehrke's bosses in Sacramento are not calling this a drought. They are wary of all the political and economic baggage that word carries. But the dry spell, now two years running, has a lot of people worried.

California's last official drought was from 1987 until 1992. Since then, the state's population has soared, and the courts and environmental regulators have ordered the diversion of a large amount of water to preserve habitat for endangered species. California also now shares far more of the Colorado River water with other southwestern states. So an extended period of below-normal rain and snow could mean water rationing for residents and businesses, and serious hardship for the state's agricultural heartland in the Central Valley.

The first to feel the pinch might be the residents of 29 Bay Area cities and unincorporated towns served by the East Bay Municipal Utility District. The district depends heavily on the Sierra snows for its water supply.

The district's board of directors is scheduled to meet May 13 to decide whether to adopt restrictions on car washing, outdoor watering and water fountains. Water users might also see a rate increase.

In Roseville, meanwhile, officials have declared a "stage one" drought alert because of a 25 percent reduction in water deliveries from Folsom Lake. The city is asking residents and businesses to reduce water use by 10 percent. The only mandatory measure is a prohibition against washing sidewalks, parking lots and buildings with water unless required for public health reasons.

It will take at least one more dry year to trigger a similar reaction statewide. The state's reservoirs are at about 80 percent of capacity now but will drop to about 65 percent by the end of the summer. If they are not replenished next winter, it is likely that the entire state will be in a drought emergency a year from now.

"What this situation reminds us all of is the need to begin … to deal with the fact that we really have a resource that is a precious resource that needs to be preserved," said Mike Chrisman, secretary of the Resources Agency for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. "We need to recognize that we are in a shortage and begin to act accordingly."

With the short-term situation tenuous but not yet critical, Chrisman tried to shift the focus to the long-term. Schwarzenegger has called for a 20 percent reduction in water use by 2020 and also supports the construction of at least two new dams in the Central Valley, along with a canal to move water around the sensitive Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Chrisman said the latest news is further evidence that the governor's warnings about the state's future water supply should be heeded.

But Democratic Senate leader Don Perata, who opposes new dams, said Schwarzenegger should quickly draw upon more than $600 million the state already has available to protect the Delta, clean up groundwater supplies and promote conservation.

California's future is likely to see a worsening of that tension between forces who want to increase the water supply to serve a growing population and economy and those who oppose new water storage because of environmental concerns or as a way to limit growth.

If next winter does not bring a healthy dose of rain and snow, that debate is going to move very quickly from the back rooms of the Capitol to boardrooms and living rooms across California.