New polls show Obama maintaining slim lead in most swing states

McClatchy NewspapersOctober 11, 2012 

New polls out Thursday showed that despite what many voters found to be a lackluster debate performance Oct. 3, President Barack Obama has not lost ground in key swing states.

Just before the debate, the NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll of Florida likely voters gave Obama a 1 percentage point lead. That's still the margin.

In Ohio, Obama was up by 8, and he's now up 51-45 percent. In Virginia, Obama was up 2, but Romney is now ahead by 1.

"Our poll shows some improvement for the GOP presidential nominee, but we seem to be back to where we were before the conventions: It's a very close race with Obama still enjoying a structural edge in the battleground states," said NBC in its morning political memo.

"And why was there only a little change in these surveys -- conducted Oct. 7-9 -- since last week’s debate? These numbers probably tell the story: More than 90% of the likely voters in these three states say they made up their minds BEFORE the debate. Here is a question to be asked: Is Romney over-performing in national polls and under-performing in the battlegrounds? Sure seems like it."

A separate survey, Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS poll, tells a similar story. It surveyed other key states, and found Romney ahead by 1 in Colorado, a switch from Obama's 1 point edge a nomth ago.

In Virginia, though, Obama is up 51-46, compared to being up 50-46 last month.

And in Wisconsin, Obama has a 3 percentage point lead, down from from a 6 point edge last month.

"Gov. Mitt Romney outfought President Barack Obama 4-1 in the first debate, according to likely voters in Colorado, Virginia and Wisconsin," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The shifts are too small to measure, but the races in Wisconsin and Colorado are now too close to call. The president holds his lead in Virginia."

To read the Quinnipiac poll: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-%28co-va-and-wi%29/release-detail?ReleaseID=1804

For more on the NBC-Marist poll: http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/10/14352371-nbcwsjmarist-poll-romney-gains-in-key-swing-states?lite

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